Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Free Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Hockey, NHL

Air Canada Centre plays host to an Atlantic Division matchup as the Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the visiting Ottawa Senators. Sportsnet will showcase the matchup, which gets going at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 10.

Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

Toronto is 25-19 straight up (SU) and has earned 0.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. That win percentage, the third-best in the Atlantic Division so far this season, is a welcome improvement compared to what the team managed during the 2016-17 season (40-42). Of its 44 games this season, 21 have gone over the total, while 20 have gone under and just three have pushed. This season, the team is 13-7 SU at home.

The Maple Leafs have been able to convert on 21.4 percent of their power play chances this year, a mark that’s good enough for seventh-best in the NHL. On the other hand, their penalty kill is ranked fifth overall, and they’ve successfully killed off 83.7 percent of all penalties.

As a collective unit, the Maple Leafs have been called for penalties 3.8 times per game overall this season, and 4.4 per game over their last five home outings. The teams had to kill penalties for 8.6 minutes per game over their last five matchups, overall.

Averaging 31.5 saves per game with a .922 save percentage, Frederik Andersen (22-14-2) has been the primary goalkeeper for Toronto this season. If Toronto decides to rest him, however, the team could turn to Curtis McElhinney (3-4-4 record, .916 save percentage, 2.78 goals against average).

The Leafs will continue to lean on the offensive production from Auston Matthews and William Nylander. Matthews (33 points) is up to 19 goals and 14 assists and has recorded two or more points on 10 different occasions this year. Nylander has nine goals and 22 assists to his name and has notched a point in 23 contests.

Ottawa is 14-27 straight up (SU) and has lost 14.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline this year. A total of 21 of its matches have gone over the total, while 19 have gone under and none have pushed. The Senators are 5-14 SU as the away team this season.

The Senators have converted on just 15.3 percent of their power play chances this season, a mark that’s ranked 29th in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 30th overall and it’s successfully killed off 74.0 percent of all penalties.

Ottawa’s skaters have been penalized 3.8 times per game this season, and 4.8 per game over their last five games. The team has been forced to defend opponent power plays 11.6 minutes per game over their last five road outings.

Craig Anderson (.897 save percentage and 3.23 goals against average) has been the primary option in goal for Ottawa. Anderson is averaging 26.2 saves per game and owns a 12-19-5 record.

Mark Stone (18 goals, 24 assists) will pace the attack for the visiting Senators.

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Free Picks

Predictions: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Under

Betting Trends

  • Five of Ottawa’s last ten games have been decided by two goals or more. The team is 1-4 in those games.
  • The Senators are 6-14 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 9-15 in games where they’re in the penalty box for fewer than 10 total minutes.
  • Two of Toronto’s last ten games have been decided by a shootout. The team is 2-0 in those games and 4-1 overall in shootouts this season.
  • Toronto may hold the upper hand if it’s a close one late. The teams 13-5 in games decided by one goal, while Ottawa is 8-14 in such games.
  • The under has hit in four of Toronto’s last five outings.
  • Toronto has averaged 13.4 giveaways over its last five home games, a rise over its season average of 11.5 giveaways per game (ranked 26th overall).
  • Ottawa is ranked 21st this season with 10.3 giveaways per game. That figure’s trended higher lately, as it’s averaged 11.3 giveaways over its last 10 games and 11.8 giveaways over its last five.
  • Ottawa skaters have dished out the seventh-most hits in the league (23.4 per game), but the teams recorded just 17.4 hits over their last five away games.