Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears: Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The No. 19 Oregon Ducks (-3) are set to face off against their conference rival No. 24 California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. FS1 has the TV rights and the game is scheduled to start at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: California Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks

In this Saturday Pac-12 game, Oregon is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Ducks are also receiving -155 moneyline odds while the Golden Bears are +135. There should be some solid live betting opportunities during the match.

The initial odds have recently shifted. This game’s opening line was 4.

The Ducks are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.0 unit this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2.

The surprising Golden Bears have gained 2.1 units in 2018. The team is 1-1-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 0-2.

The Ducks are 3-1 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Golden Bears are 3-0 SU overall and 0-0 SU in conference play.

The Ducks lost to Stanford 38-31 in a game where their secondary allowed the Cardinal to air it out for 327 yards and three touchdowns. Bryce Love had a good day for the Cardinal in that one with 89 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. Offensively, Justin Herbert completed 26 passes on 33 attempts for 346 yards, along with one score and a pick. CJ Verdell (115 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Herbert (35 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack in the loss. Dillon Mitchell (14 receptions, 239 yards) and Jacob Breeland (three catches, 34 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.

California is coming off of a 45-23 win over Idaho State. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Bengals to run for 140 yards on 45 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Mitch Gueller was a force to be reckoned with, recording 156 yards and a score on six catches for Idaho State. As a group, the Golden Bears collectively completed 24-of-32 passes for 269 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Chase Garbers went 20-for-25 for 224 yards, three touchdowns and one interception while Brandon McIlwain was four-of-seven for 45 yards and one touchdown. Patrick Laird (22 yards on 11 rush attempts) and Marcel Dancy (80 yards on 11 carries, one TD) mounted the ground game in the win while Vic Wharton III (four receptions, 34 yards) and Jordan Duncan (four catches, 63 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching corps.

Oregon has run the ball on 60.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while California has a rush percentage of 56.3 percent. The Ducks have produced 205.0 rush yards per game and have 12 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Golden Bears are averaging 180.0 rush yards per game and have three total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Ducks ought to hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency, as their backfield has produced 4.4 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 2.1 to opponents. The Golden Bears have ran for 4.2 yards per carry and allowed 3.4 YPC to opponents.

The Ducks offensive scheme has averaged 303.3 yards through the air overall and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Golden Bears have produced 202.3 pass yards per outing and have seven total pass scores.

Oregon has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 75.5 yards and pass for 251.3 yards per game. The California defense has allowed 170.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 131.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Golden Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 2.13 to opposing QBs, while the Ducks have given up a 6.87 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Herbert is up to 877 yards this year. He’s completed 70 percent of his 80 attempts with 10 passing scores and only three interceptions. He’s got a sparkling 10.47 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.86 over the past two outings.

We expect the Oregon offense to mix it up in this one. Dillon Mitchell (320 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), CJ Verdell (272 rush yards, two rush TDs, 9 receiving yards) and Jacob Breeland (39 receiving yards, one TD) have each played significant roles lately.

On the other sideline, Chase Garbers has completed 27-of-38 passes for 278 yards, four TDs and one INT. Garbers’ ANY/A stands at 7.07 for the season and 7.41 over his past two games.

Similar to the Ducks, expect a balanced attack offensively from California this Saturday. Patrick Laird, Kanawai Noa and Brandon McIlwain have combined to account for 331 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns as a trio the last two outings.

These two teams met last year with the final outcome being a 45-24 win for Oregon.

Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears NCAA Pick

SU Winner: California, ATS Winner: California

Team Betting Notes

  • The Oregon defensive unit has more than twice as many sacks as California this year (13 to six).
  • Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
  • The Ducks offense has registered six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Golden Bears have accounted for one such play.
  • The Oregon defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while California has given up three such plays.
  • The Oregon offense has created six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while California has created zero such run.
  • The Ducks defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Golden Bears have given up one such run.
  • California was favored by -38 points in its previous outing. The team failed to cover the spread in the team’s 45-23 win over Idaho State.
  • In its last three matches, Oregon is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Oregon was the underdog by 3 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 59. The over cashed and Oregon failed to cover in the 38-31 defeat to Stanford.
  • Oregon, as a team, has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last two matchups.
  • California has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last two.