Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks – 10/13/2018 Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Ole Miss Rebels (-6) are heading neutral to face their in-conference counterpart Arkansas Razorbacks at War Memorial Stadium. The matchup is scheduled to get going at 7:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to SEC Network.

Betting Preview: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Arkansas is the underdog in this SEC game and is currently getting 6 points. The Rebels are also receiving -240 moneyline odds while the Razorbacks are +190. If one team can create a bunch of points in the early stages, it’ll probably create a worthwhile live betting opportunity.

This game’s line originally opened at 7 but has moved a bit recently.

The Rebels have recorded 0.0 units so far and are 3-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 4-2.

The underwhelming Razorbacks have lost 10.6 units this season. The team is 3-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-4.

The Rebels are 4-2 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against conference opponents. The Razorbacks are 1-5 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.

The Rebels are coming off a resounding 70-21 victory over Louisiana-Monroe last week. The passing attack was sharp as the Rebels completed 31-of-34 passes for 517 yards and five touchdowns. Jordan Ta’amu went 21-for-24 for 374 yards and three touchdowns while Matt Corral completed 10-of-10 for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Scottie Phillips (74 yards on 12 rush attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack while DaMarkus Lodge (nine receptions, 179 yards, one TD) and A.J. Brown (nine catches, 133 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, Alabama took care of this Arkansas team by a score of 65-31. Ty Storey completed 25-of-39 passes for 230 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Rakeem Boyd (102 yards on 15 rush attempts) mounted the running attack as Cheyenne O’Grady (seven receptions, 48 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Ole Miss has run the ball on 50.5 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 53.1 percent across possessions in conference play. Arkansas has a run percentage of 52.7 percent, and has rushed the ball 49.0 percent of the time when playing SEC opponents. The Rebels have produced 193.3 rush yards/game (including 132.5 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Razorbacks are putting up 146.8 rush yards per game (125.3 in conference) and have seven total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Rebels ought to hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has yielded just 32 sacks while the D-line logged 29 sacks. The Razorbacks, on the other hand, have given up 35 sacks and their defense has recorded only 19 sacks.

The Rebels offensive scheme has averaged a stellar 347.5 yards in the air overall (155.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Razorbacks have produced 211.3 pass yards per contest (189 in the SEC) and have 10 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Ole Miss has allowed 195.7 rush yards and 307.8 pass yards per game. The Arkansas defense has given up 271.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.2 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Rebels have given up an ANY/A of 7.31 to opposing QBs, while the Razorbacks are allowing an ANY/A of 7.56.

Passing-wise, Ta’amu is already up to 1,733 yards this season, and has completed 101-of-149 attempts with 13 scores through the air and only three interceptions. He’s got a pristine 11.47 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.92 over the past two outings.

A.J. Brown (514 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns on the year), DaMarkus Lodge (363 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Scottie Phillips (541 rush yards, seven rush TDs, two TDs) have all played key roles lately.

Ty Storey has completed 55-of-100 passes for 668 yards, five TDs and four INTs for Arkansas. His ANY/A sits at 5.49 for the season and 5.13 over his last two games.

We also expect the Arkansas offense to mix things up this Saturday. Rakeem Boyd (247 rushing yards, 71 receiving yards on the year), Cheyenne O’Grady (48 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Deon Stewart (107 receiving yards) have combined for 390 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns the past two games.

When these two teams faced one another last year, Arkansas earned the win 38-37.

Ole Miss Rebels at Arkansas Razorbacks NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Ole Miss, ATS Winner: Ole Miss

Team Betting Notes

  • The Arkansas offense has lost three fumbles this season while Ole Miss has let two get away.
  • The Ole Miss defensive unit has 15 sacks on the year while Arkansas has 12.
  • Ole Miss has averaged 6.30188679245283 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.7 over its last two.
  • Arkansas has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
  • Over its last three matches, Arkansas is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Ole Miss was favored by 24 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 76. The over cashed and Ole Miss covered in the 70-21 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
  • Over its last three contests, Ole Miss is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Arkansas was getting 35 points in its last outing and the Over/Under going into it was 58.5. The over cashed and Arkansas covered in the 65-31 loss to Alabama.