Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks: 9/29/2018 Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (-18) and Kansas Jayhawks will go at it on the turf at Kivisto Field at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff for this crucial game is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and FSN will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks

In this Saturday Big 12 game, Oklahoma State is tabbed as the big favorite and is currently giving up 18 points. If they want to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to put down $1,500 in order to win $100 back on the Cowboys (-1500). The Jayhawks are getting +810 moneyline odds. If one team can create a bunch of points early, it will probably create a nice live betting scenario.

The line originally opened at 17 but sharp bettors are siding with the Cowboys.

The disappointing Cowboys are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 6.5 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 1-2.

The Jayhawks have lost 2.4 units this season. The team is 2-2 ATS and also has an O/U record of 1-2.

The Cowboys have gone 3-1 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks are 2-2 SU overall and are also 0-1 SU in conference play.

The Cowboys are on the rebound after a 41-17 loss to Texas Tech last week. The passing game could’ve been more effective as Taylor Cornelius completed only 18 passes on 38 attempts for 258 yards, along with one score and a pick. Justice Hill (111 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack. Tylan Wallace (seven receptions, 123 yards) and Jalen McCleskey (four catches, 52 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Kansas just fell 26-7 to Baylor. As a group, the Jayhawks collectively completed 16-of-27 passes for 149 yards and one touchdown. Peyton Bender went 10-for-17 for 105 yards and one touchdown while Carter Stanley was four-of-six for 37 yards. Pooka Williams Jr. (89 rushing yards on 14 attempts) handled the running game while Kerr Johnson Jr. (four receptions, 11 yards) and Steven Sims Jr. (three catches, 47 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Oklahoma State has run the ball on 52.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas has a rush percentage of 56.7 percent. The Cowboys have produced 224.8 rush yards per game and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Jayhawks are totaling 198.5 rush yards per game and have six total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Cowboys ought to have an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.0 YPC to opponents. The Jayhawks have ran for 5.2 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.

The Cowboys offense has logged 314.5 yards per contest in the air overall and has nine passing TDs so far. The Jayhawks have recorded 159.3 pass yards per game and have five total pass scores.

Defensively, Oklahoma State has allowed 111.5 rush yards and 265.8 pass yards per game. The Kansas defense has given up 175.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.5 yards per game on the ground. The Jayhawks are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.57 to opponents, while the Cowboys have given up a 5.31 ANY/A.

Offensively, Cornelius is up to 986 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 60 percent of his 113 attempts with seven scores through the air and four interceptions. He has a 7.49 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.68 over the last two games.

Justice Hill, Tylan Wallace and Dillon Stoner have combined for 550 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.

On the other sideline, Peyton Bender has managed to complete 46-of-78 passes for 422 yards, four TDs and zero INTs. Bender’s ANY/A stands at an ultra-pedestrian 4.95 for the season and 6.00 over his last two outings.

We expect the Jayhawks to control tempo by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. Steven Sims Jr. (106 receiving yards, one TD this season) has stepped up lately, but Pooka Williams Jr. (214 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Khalil Herbert (96 rush yards) have really been focal points in the Kansas offense.

These two schools met a year ago with the final outcome being a 58-17 win for Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas Jayhawks NCAA Pick

SU Winner: Oklahoma State, ATS Winner: Kansas

Team Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma State was favored by 15 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 77. The under cashed and Oklahoma State failed to cover in the 41-17 defeat to Texas Tech.
  • Oklahoma State has produced 4.41509433962264 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.9 over its last two.
  • Kansas has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.9 over its past two.
  • The Kansas offense has lost one fumble this season while Oklahoma State has lost three.
  • In its last three games, Oklahoma State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Kansas was favored by 8 points in its previous outing and the O/U going into it was 54.5. The under cashed and Kansas did not cover in that 26-7 defeat to Baylor.
  • In its last three matches, Kansas is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Cowboys offense has produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Jayhawks have put up zero such plays.
  • The Oklahoma State defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40 yards or more, while Kansas has given up one such play.
  • The Oklahoma State offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas has created 11 such runs.
  • The Cowboys defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Jayhawks have given up three such runs.
  • The Oklahoma State D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this year. Kansas has recorded just five sacks.