Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction

The Miami Heat (43-37) will be 1-point underdogs at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they meet the Oklahoma City Thunder (46-34). The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 210.5 points and it will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 9, 2018.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat ATS Odds

In their last matchup, the Heat were blown out by the New York Knicks, 122-98, while the Thunder defeated the Houston Rockets, 108-102.

Oklahoma City played a nearly flawless game. They had a great turnover percentage of 9.4 (better than their season average of 12.0) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.0 (above their season average of 27.9). For those same stats, Houston recorded marks of 16.5 and 18.2, respectively. Miami, meanwhile, did a terrific job of making free throws (21-22; 95.5 percent). Miami was led by Goran Dragic, who recorded 15 points. Russell Westbrook was a key piece for Oklahoma City with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds.

From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami figures to have a substantial advantage. The Heat defense ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507), while the Oklahoma City offense is ranked 21st in effective field goal percentage (0.512).

Vegas is known to place the total high when the Thunder are involved, as 45 of their 80 games have ended under the total. Oklahoma City heads into the game with records of 46-34 straight up (SU) and 32-46-2 against the spread (ATS).

Heat games also have finished under the projected point total 51.2 percent of the time. Moreover, Miami owns records of 43-37 SU and 40-36-4 ATS.

In their first matchup this season, Westbrook led the Thunder to a 105-99 victory. He recorded a double-double with 29 points and 13 rebounds. Oklahoma City covered as a 6-point favorite and the two teams combined for 204 points, which was under the projected point total of 216.5. The Thunder’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Heat. Oklahoma City had a rate of 26.7, while Miami posted a mark of 17.0.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat ATS Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank sixth in blocks per game (5.3) while the Thunder rank 10th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
  • Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (15.1) while Miami ranks 24th (11.0).
  • The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.1) while the Heat rank 18th (7.6).
  • Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (18.6) while Miami ranks 15th (16.4).
  • Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.9) while Oklahoma City ranks 14th (23.4).
  • The Thunder rank third in fast break points per game (15.0) while the Heat rank 25th (9.2).
  • The Thunder rank fifth in rebounds per game (45.1) while the Heat rank 19th (43.3).
  • Miami ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (26.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 24th (30.7).
  • Miami is 27-6 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 21-5.
  • When reaching 100 points, the Heat are 31-18 and the Thunder are 42-18.
  • Miami is 16-21-2 ATS at home, while Oklahoma City is 17-23 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 20 of the Heat’s 39 home games, while 22 of the Thunder’s 40 road games have gone under.

Betting Trends:

  • The Thunder are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Oklahoma City has 4 unders and 1 over, while Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 3.1 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.2 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.6 points per game (1.1 below their season average).