North Texas Mean Green at UTEP Miners – NCAA Football Free Pick

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The North Texas Mean Green and Utep Miners are ready to do battle on the turf of Sun Bowl. The matchup kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and beIN Sports is scheduled to televise the action.

Betting Preview: North Texas Mean Green vs. UTEP Miners

North Texas is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 25.5 points to UTEP. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points, and if one team gets out in front early, it’ll likely create a worthwhile live betting scenario.

The game’s total has moved higher after opening at 54. The original line of 25.5 has yet to change.

The Mean Green are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.5 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 0-5.

The Miners have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 2-3 ATS and has an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Mean Green are 4-1 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Miners are 0-5 SU overall and are also 0-1 SU in conference play.

The Mean Green fell to Louisiana Tech 29-27 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Bulldogs to eat up the clock by running for 129 yards on 32 rush attempts. Rhashid Bonnette had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 101 yards on five catches. On the offensive side, Mason Fine completed 22 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Loren Easly (110 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Fine (-24 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack. Rico Bussey, Jr. (nine receptions, 112 yards, two TDs) and Jalen Guyton (five catches, 51 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, UTSA knocked off this UTEP crew by a score of 30-21. The Miners let the Roadrunners put up 187 passing yards and 91 rushing yards. Greg Campbell Jr. had a good outing in the win, recording 61 yards on four catches for UTSA. For UTEP, Kai Locksley completed 10-of-16 passes for 117 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Locksley (106 rushing yards on 24 attempts, one TD) and Quardraiz Wadley (10 yards on 10 carries, one TD) mounted the running game while Alan Busey (two receptions, 20 yards) and Terry Juniel (two catches, 35 yards) led the UTEP pass-catchers in the loss.

North Texas has run the ball on 48.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UTEP has an overall rush percentage of 63.9 percent. The Mean Green have produced 158.6 rush yards per game and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Miners are averaging 170.2 rush yards per game and have seven total rushing TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it appears the Mean Green should hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has allowed just 39 sacks while the D-line registered 23 sacks. The Miners, on the other hand, have allowed 25 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 11 occasions.

The Mean Green offensive scheme has tallied an astonishing 335.4 yards per contest in the air overall and has 13 passing scores so far. The Miners have put up 125.2 pass yards per outing and have two total pass TDs.

North Texas has allowed opponents to run for an average of 105.0 yards and throw for 213.2 yards per game. The UTEP defense has allowed 168.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 222.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mean Green are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.10 to opponents, while the Miners have allowed a 7.62 ANY/A.

Fine probably has the edge over Locksley in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.67for the season (and 7.79 over the past two outings). Locksley’s ANY/A is 2.61 for the year and 4.74 across his last two games.

When these two teams met a year ago, North Texas won by five touchdowns 45-10.

North Texas Mean Green at UTEP Miners NCAA Tip

SU Winner: UTEP, ATS Winner: UTEP, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The North Texas D has 16 sacks on the year while UTEP has just nine.
  • UTEP has lost six fumbles in 2018 while the North Texas offense has let three get away.
  • The Mean Green offense has tallied three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Miners have accounted for two such plays.
  • The North Texas defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UTEP has given up four such plays.
  • Both teams have produced seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The North Texas offense has recorded 26 running plays of 10+ yards while UTEP has accounted for 31 such plays.
  • The Mean Green defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Miners have given up 12 such runs.
  • UTEP was favored by 11 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 47. The over cashed and UTEP failed to cover in the team’s 30-21 defeat to UTSA.
  • In its last three contests, UTEP is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three matchups, North Texas is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • North Texas was favored by 8 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 62. The under cashed and North Texas did not cover in the 29-27 loss to Louisiana Tech.
  • North Texas, as a team, has rushed for 5.06194690265487 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 5.7 over its last two.
  • UTEP has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.6 over its last two.