North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs: 11/10/2018 Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The North Texas Mean Green (-14.5) and Old Dominion Monarchs are ready to go at it on the turf at Foreman Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium. Kickoff for this game is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN 3.

Betting Preview: Old Dominion Monarchs vs. North Texas Mean Green

Old Dominion is a noticeable underdog in this CUSA game and is currently getting 14.5 points. The Mean Green are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Monarchs are +510. If one squad can catch a lucky break early it will result in a decent in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 64 points.

Sharp bettors have been leaning toward the Mean Green. The line initially opened at 13.5 and the over/under was originally 63.5.

The Mean Green have gained 0.5 units so far and are 4-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 0-9.

The lackluster Monarchs have lost 6.8 units this season. They’re 3-6 ATS and the over’s hit in eight of their games.

The Mean Green have gone 7-2 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against conference opponents. The Monarchs are 2-7 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.

The Mean Green are trying to keep things going after a solid 41-17 victory over Rice on October 27 where the defense allowed the Owls to pass for 204 yards and rush for 95 yards. Austin Trammell had a good day for the Owls in that one with 94 yards on 10 catches. On the offensive side, Mason Fine completed only 18-of-35 passes for 333 yards and two touchdowns. DeAndre Torrey (130 yards on 15 rush attempts, three TDs) led the running attack. Rico Bussey, Jr. (four receptions, 145 yards, one TD) and Michael Lawrence (four catches, 69 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Old Dominion just fell 51-17 to Middle Tennessee. The team’s defensive unit let the Blue Raiders kill the clock by running for 208 yards on 38 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Terelle West was outstanding, recording 120 rushing yards and a score on 13 attempts for the Blue Raiders. For Old Dominion, Blake LaRussa completed 26-of-35 passes for 333 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Kesean Strong (108 yards on 17 rush attempts) and Matt Geiger (53 yards on seven carries) handled the running game while Travis Fulgham (10 receptions, 215 yards, one TD) and Jonathan Duhart (six catches, 36 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Each of these squads has a similar (47-53) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Mean Green have rushed for 146.7 yards/game (including 131.6 per game versus Conference USA opponents) and have 18 scores on the ground this year. The Monarchs haven’t been quite as successful, as they’re averaging 121.7 rush yards per game (134.7 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.

Based on the results so far, it seems like the Mean Green may have the advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has logged 4.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Monarchs have tallied 3.6 yards per carry and allowed 5.4 YPC to opponents.

The Mean Green offense has averaged 325.8 yards in the air overall (310.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has 21 passing scores so far. The Monarchs have recorded 309.0 pass yards per game (311 in the CUSA) and have 16 total pass TDs.

Defensively, North Texas appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 108.6 yards and pass for 232.1 yards per game. The Old Dominion defense has allowed 278.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 232.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mean Green are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.34 to opponents, while the Monarchs have allowed an 8.07 ANY/A.

Offensively, Fine has already put up 2,543 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 63 percent of his 304 attempts with 18 passing scores and only one interception. He’s got a pristine 8.68 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.94 over the last two games.

Rico Bussey, Jr. DeAndre Torrey and Jaelon Darden have combined to account for 592 total yards and eight touchdowns over the last two outings.

On the other sideline, Blake LaRussa has managed to complete 159-of-244 passes for 1,947 yards, 13 TDs and seven INTs. LaRussa’s ANY/A sits at 6.69 for the season and 7.81 over his past two outings.

Travis Fulgham, Kesean Strong and Jonathan Duhart have collectively accounted for 705 total yards and five touchdowns the last two outings.

When these two squads met last year, North Texas knocked Old Dominion off by a touchdown 45-38.

North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs NCAA Pick

SU Winner: North Texas, ATS Winner: North Texas, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for North Texas’ previous game was 58.5. The under cashed in the team’s 41-17 triumph over Rice.
  • As a team, North Texas has averaged 4.9 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.9 over its last two.
  • Old Dominion has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.8 over its past two.
  • Both teams have lost seven fumbles this season.
  • In its last three contests, North Texas is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • North Texas has won four of its last five games SU, with an eight-point defeat to UAB on October 20th representing the only loss over that stretch.
  • The O/U for Old Dominion’s last outing was set at 62. The over cashed in the 51-17 defeat to Middle Tennessee.
  • Over its last three matches, Old Dominion is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Mean Green offense has recorded nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Monarchs have put up seven such plays.
  • The North Texas defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while Old Dominion has given up nine such plays.
  • The North Texas offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Old Dominion has created eight such runs.
  • The Mean Green defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Monarchs have given up 21 such runs.
  • The North Texas defensive unit has twice as many sacks as Old Dominion this year (28 to 14).