New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Yankees will take on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. ATTSN Southwest is in line to televise this AL matchup and the game gets going at 8:10 p.m. ET.

New York Yankees at Houston Astros Odds

Both teams have identical moneyline odds (-105) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs. Odds for wagering on the games total sit at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at +140 for the Yankees -1.5 runs and -160 for the Astros +1.5.

The Astros are 20-11 SU and 16-14 ATS. The team’s gained 0.8 units for moneyline bettors and 0.0 units against the spread (ATS). Houston has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Yankees have gone 19-10 SU this year and are 15-13 ATS. Overall, the teams gained 2.1 units for moneyline bettors over the early portions of the season and 0.6 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Astros games have a 12-16-2 over/under record so far in 2018. New York has been a decent over bet with a total record of 17-10-1.

Luis Severino will get the nod for the visiting Yankees. The right-handed Severino is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 42 strikeouts. He has yet to face Houston this year, but he did make two starts against the Astros in 2017, putting together a 0-1 record against them with a 10.57 ERA and nine strikeouts.

The Astros are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Dallas Keuchel (1-4, 4.00 ERA), who’s got 28 punchouts and 12 walks, as well as a 1.31 WHIP. Keuchel only made one start against the Yankees in 2017 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and nine strikeouts across six innings).

Houston’s pitchers have allowed 2.8 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The teams starters have a 2.34 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.

Houston’s hitters have put up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.1 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over their last five. The teams hit .232/.300/.374 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Carlos Correa and second baseman Jose Altuve have led the Astros batters so far. Correa is hitting .321/.394/.519 with four home runs, 21 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while Altuve’s line is .344/.400/.434 with 42 hits, 15 RBIs and 17 runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .345/.409/.547, Altuve did not seem to enjoy hitting against right-handed pitching at home last year, producing .296/.358/.412 across 260 plate appearances.

In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.26 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.15, along with a K/9 of 12.69.

Yankees hitters have slashed .253/.341/.451 on their way to 5.8 runs scored per game this season, including 6.0 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the teams last five outings (4-1 SU).

Shortstop Didi Gregorius and right fielder Aaron Judge have led New York’s hitters. Gregorius is slashing .333/.424/.735 with 10 home runs, 30 RBIs and 25 runs scored, while Judge (.314/.447/.571) has produced seven homers, 18 RBIs and 25 runs scored.

Compared to his total season slash line of .287/.317/.478, Gregorius didn’t do especially well against lefties on the road in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .235/.278/.324 across 72 such plate appearances.

The Yankees have gained 2.9 units and are 5-4 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in five of those games, compared to four that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Astros have netted 1.8 units and are 11-9 ATS when facing a righty starter. The overs hit in eight of those games, compared to 11 that’ve gone under.

New York Yankees at Houston Astros MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Astros, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Yankees have won 10 of their last 11 games SU.
  • The New York defense has allowed seven errors over the last 10 games, compared to zero errors for Houston over its last 10.
  • The Yankees have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Astros have hit 12 over their last 10.