New York Yankees at New York Mets Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Yankees will be taking on the New York Mets at Citi Field. This interleague matchup is going to be televised nationally on ESPN and the first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET.

New York Yankees at New York Mets Odds

The Yankees (-230) are entering this game as the favorite over the Mets (+210) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this game at 7 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds standing at Yankees -1.5 runs (-155) and Mets +1.5 runs (+135).

The Mets are 27-34 SU and 26-33 ATS. They’ve lost 10.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 8.4 units against the spread (ATS). The Yankees have gone 42-18 SU this year and are 34-25 ATS. Overall, the teams gained 13.3 units for moneyline bettors and 8.1 units ATS.

Mets games have had an over/under record of 25-33-1 so far in 2018. The Yankees have been a decent over bet with a total record of 31-25-3.

Right-hander Luis Severino is getting the start for the visiting Yankees. Severino is 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 102 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Mets this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and nine strikeouts over six and one-third innings).

The Mets are sending righty Seth Lugo (1-1, 2.04 ERA) to the mound. Lugo has 39 strikeouts and nine walks to his name, as well as a 0.93 WHIP. Lugo did not record a start against the Yankees in 2017.

As a unit, the Mets pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018. Their starting pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.9 K/9.

The New York hitters are putting up 3.9 runs per contest, including 2.1 per game over its last 10 games and 1.0 per game over their last five. The teams hit .138/.220/.243 over its last five matchups and is 0-5 SU during that span.

Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario have paced the Mets’ hitters this year. Cabrera is slashing .285/.325/.502 with 11 home runs, 36 RBIs and 31 runs scored, and Rosario’s line sits at .247/.279/.359 with three homers, 18 RBIs and 23 runs scored.

For the visitors, the Yankees pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and their starters own a 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 8.94 K/9. The bullpen has managed a solid ERA of just 3.06, along with a K/9 of 12.12.

Yankees hitters have slashed .254/.337/.467 on their way to 5.6 runs scored per game this year, including 5.0 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.0 per game over the teams last five contests (4-1 SU).

Aaron Judge and Miguel Andujar continue to lead New York’s hitters. Judge is hitting .271/.396/.569 with 18 home runs, 45 RBIs and 44 runs scored, while Andujar is hitting .305/.335/.550 with eight homers, 28 RBIs and 30 runs scored.

The Yankees have gained 6.3 units and are 24-17 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 24 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 6.2 units and are 18-24 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 23 that went under the total.

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Yankees, ATS Winner – Yankees, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The under has hit in five of New York’s last seven games.
  • The Yankees have won nine of their last 10 games SU while the Mets have lost nine of their last 10 SU.
  • The Mets have posted 13.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over their last 10 outings and 9.4 over their last five.
  • The Yankees have hit 19 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.