New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Jose VasquezBaseball, MLB

The Boston Red Sox will go for their fourth consecutive victory as they play host to the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. The action is going to be televised nationally on ESPN and the game gets underway 8:08 p.m. ET.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Odds

New York (+115) is the underdog against Boston (-125) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 9 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -180 for betting the Yankees +1.5 runs and +160 for the Red Sox -1.5 runs.

The Yankees have gone 68-41 SU this year and are 54-54 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle a whole lot this year, losing 0.6 units for moneyline bettors and 6.5 units ATS. New York has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 78-34 SU and 66-45 ATS. They’ve gained 27.4 units for moneyline bettors and 20.9 units ATS. Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Red Sox games have an over/under record of 51-57-3 in 2018. New York has also been a decent under bet with a total record of 48-55-5.

Masahiro Tanaka will get the start for New York. The right-handed Tanaka is 9-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 100 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with six strikeouts and an 8.71 ERA against Boston this year (two starts).

The Red Sox will put the ball in the left hand of David Price (11-6, 3.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), who has 119 strikeouts and 36 walks this season. Price is 0-2 with four strikeouts and a 24.92 ERA over two starts against New York this year.

Boston’s pitching staff has allowed 3.6 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The club’s starters have a 3.49 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.37 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 50 divisional games, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.46 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.13.

The Boston offense is putting up 5.3 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .253/.318/.461 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Red Sox offense has been led by J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Martinez is slashing .325/.392/.645 with 33 home runs, 91 RBIs and 80 runs scored, while Betts is batting .341 with 25 homers, 57 RBIs, 87 runs and 21 stolen bases.

In the other dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.81 K/9. The bullpen has logged a solid ERA of just 3.11, along with a K/9 of 11.51.

The Yankees offense has slashed .254/.334/.456 on its way to 5.1 runs scored per game this year, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Giancarlo Stanton and Didi Gregorius continue to lead New York’s hitters. Stanton is hitting .279/.342/.513 with 25 home runs, 66 RBIs and 68 runs scored. Gregorius (.268/.327/.484) is up to 20 homers, 65 RBIs, 67 runs and 10 steals.

The Yankees have gained 13.7 units and are 15-16 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 13 of those games, as opposed to 16 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 25.3 units and are 51-32 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 38 of those games, compared to 43 that’ve gone under.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Yankees, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has cashed in just two of New York’s last seven games.
  • The Yankees have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
  • New York has posted 20.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 16.8 over its last five.
  • The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight games SU.