New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Mets will be squaring off against their division rival Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. The matchup will begin at 1:35 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will be showing the game.

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Odds

New York (+120) is entering this game as the underdog to Washington (-130) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 9 runs (-110 for the under and -110 for the over). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at -175 for the Mets +1.5 runs and +155 for the Nationals -1.5.

The Nationals are 78-77 straight up (SU) and 72-82 against the spread (ATS). The team has lost 27.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 14.1 units (ATS). Washington has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Mets are 72-83 SU and have gone 77-76 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 9.8 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 5.8 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

Washington games have an over/under record of 71-80-3 in 2018. The Mets have also been a decent under bet with a total record of 67-77-9.

Steven Matz will get the start for the visiting Mets. The southpaw Matz is 5-11 with a 4.03 ERA and 140 strikeouts. He’s 0-3 with 27 strikeouts and a 5.48 ERA against Washington this year (five starts).

The Nationals are putting the ball in the hands of righty Erick Fedde (2-3, 5.02 ERA), who has 41 strikeouts and 17 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.44. Fedde hasn’t faced the Mets yet this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 7.50 ERA and five strikeouts across six innings).

Washington’s pitching staff has given up 4.2 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 4.03 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 72 games against divisional opponents, Nationals starters have an ERA of 4.23 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.15.

Washington’s offense has produced 4.7 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .224/.323/.365 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Nationals’ offense has been led by shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Turner is slashing .270/.341/.410 with 18 home runs, 67 RBIs, 99 runs and 41 steals, while Rendon’s line sits at .305/.370/.522 with 22 homers, 83 RBIs and 84 runs.

For the visiting squad, New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 3.68 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.18 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.98, along with a K-per-9 of 8.48.

Mets hitters have slashed .235/.314/.391 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Shortstop Amed Rosario and outfielder Michael Conforto continue to lead New York’s hitters. The speedy Rosario is slashing .260/.297/.391 with nine home runs, 49 RBIs, 74 runs and 21 stolen bases, while Conforto (.241/.348/.443) is up to 27 homers, 77 RBIs and 74 runs scored.

The Mets have lost 2.7 units and are 57-55 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 51 of those games, compared to 55 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Nationals have lost 18.8 units and are 18-24 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 21 of those games, as opposed to 20 which went under the total.

New York Mets at Washington Nationals MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in only two of New York’s last seven outings.
  • New York has posted 18.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 14.6 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Nationals have hit 12 over their last 10.