New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Mets are ready to square off against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. SportsNet New York will be televising this NL matchup and the opening pitch will be at 8:15 p.m. ET.

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Oddsmakers have listed St. Louis (-140) as the favorite over New York (+130). The total is sitting at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for even money (+100) or the under for -120. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at Mets +1.5 runs (-170) and Cardinals +-1.5 runs (+150).

The Mets are 15-6 SU and are 12-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 8.0 units for moneyline gamblers over the early part of the year and 6.3 units ATS. New York has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are 13-9 SU and 12-9 ATS. The team has gained 3.5 units for moneyline bettors and 1.4 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

St. Louis games have had an over/under record of 10-11 so far in 2018. The Mets have an over/under record of 10-10.

The left-handed Steven Matz is the projected starter for New York. Matz is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA and 23 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA against St. Louis this year.

The Cardinals are sending righty Michael Wacha (3-1, 4.22 ERA) to the mound. Wacha has 15 punchouts and 11 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.45 WHIP. Wacha is 0-1 with two strikeouts and a 7.71 ERA in one start against New York this year.

New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 10.19 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.32, along with a WHIP of 1.16.

The Mets offense has slashed .235/.336/.390 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game this season, including 4.7 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

New York’s offensive production been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier. Cabrera is slashing .349/.391/.590 with four home runs, 12 RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Frazier (.261/.411/.464) has produced three homers, 14 RBIs and 14 runs scored.

Frazier seemed to enjoy hitting righty pitching on the road last year. Over 228 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .261/.386/.505 (compared to his total season line of .214/.345/.425).

For the home team, St. Louis’ pitching staff has given up 3.6 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.29, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.4. The bullpen has a 3.58 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.9 K/9.

The St. Louis offense has put up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.9 per game over its last 10 games and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .261/.365/.442 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Cardinals’ offense has been led by right fielder Tommy Pham and first baseman Jose Martinez. Pham is slashing .348/.477/.522 with 24 hits, seven RBIs, 19 runs and five steals, and Martinez’s line is .321/.398/.506 with three homers, 16 RBIs and seven runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .306/.411/.520, Pham did not do as well hitting at home in 2017, slashing .265/.388/.410 over 245 plate appearances.

The Mets have gained 4.5 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in eight of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Cardinals have netted 1.9 units and are 4-2 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in two of those games, as opposed to four which went under the total.

New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • New York has posted 19.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20.2 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Cardinals have hit 16 over their last 10.