New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Mets are making a road trip to Citizens Bank Park to face their division rival Philadelphia Phillies. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans looking to watch it can tune in to SportsNet New York.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Oddsmakers have listed New York (+105) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-115). The total sits at eight runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 and the under for +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds coming in at Mets +1.5 runs (-200) and Phillies -1.5 runs (+170).

The Mets are 69-80 SU and are 73-74 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 11.2 units for moneyline gamblers and 7.8 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 76-72 SU and 68-79 ATS. The team’s gained 0.2 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 20.8 units ATS.

Phillies games have an over/under record of 66-75-6 in 2018. The Mets have also been a decent under bet with a total record of 65-74-8.

Zack Wheeler is getting the start for New York. The right-handed Wheeler is 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA and 175 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with eight strikeouts and a 5.79 ERA against Philadelphia this year.

The Phillies are sending righty Jake Arrieta (10-9, 3.66 ERA) to the mound. Arrieta has 127 strikeouts and 52 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.24. Arrieta is 0-1 with 11 strikeouts and a 0.68 ERA across two starts against New York this year.

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 4.4 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 4.00, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.0. The bullpen has a 3.93 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 66 games against divisional opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.06 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.38.

The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .266/.333/.492 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera have led the Phillies’ batters this year. Hernandez is slashing .257/.359/.364 with 13 home runs, 53 RBIs, 86 runs and 18 steals, while Herrera’s line sits at .256/.313/.424 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 62 runs scored.

For the visitors, New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.19 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.95, along with a K-per-9 of 8.48.

The Mets offense has slashed .236/.314/.393 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Shortstop Amed Rosario and outfielder Michael Conforto have paced New York’s offense. Rosario is slashing .259/.298/.395 with nine home runs, 48 RBIs, 71 runs and 18 stolen bases, while Conforto (.239/.343/.433) has produced 25 homers, 69 RBIs and 71 runs scored.

The Mets have lost 5.1 units and are 54-53 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 49 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 2.5 units and are 52-59 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 48 of those games, compared to 59 that went under the total.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in four of New York’s last seven games.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 21.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.8 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 19 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 14 over their last 10.