New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick

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The Miami Marlins are playing host to their NL East foe New York Mets at Marlins Park. The matchup will begin at 1:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to SportsNet New York to catch the game.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins Odds

New York (-170) is favored against Miami (+160) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total currently sit at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. Runline odds sit at -120 for taking the Mets -1.5 runs and +100 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Mets have gone 41-51 SU this year and are 41-50 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 19.2 units for moneyline bettors and 16.9 units ATS. New York has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 34-56 SU and 45-44 ATS. They’ve lost 1.2 units for moneyline bettors and 8.4 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Marlins games have a 39-44-6 over/under record thus far in 2019. New York has been a strong over bet with a total record of 51-32-8.

Jacob deGrom will get the start for the Mets. The right-handed deGrom is 4-7 with a 3.27 ERA and 138 strikeouts. He’s 2-1 with 25 strikeouts and a 3.32 ERA against Miami this year (three starts).

The Marlins are turning to righty Sandy Alcantara (4-8, 3.82 ERA), who’s got 70 punchouts and 47 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.40. Alcantara is 1-1 with nine strikeouts and a 2.45 ERA across two starts against New York this year.

Miami’s pitchers have given up 4.5 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.89 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 48 games against NL East opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.69 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.80.

The Miami offense is putting up 3.6 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .262/.306/.430 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Marlins’ offense has been led by first baseman Miguel Rojas and second baseman Starlin Castro. Rojas is slashing .288/.344/.365 with 90 hits, 27 RBIs and 32 runs scored, while Castro is hitting .248 with six homers, 35 RBIs and 24 runs.

In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.20 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.60, along with a K/9 of 9.39.

The Mets offense has slashed .253/.327/.430 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

New York’s offensive production has been sparked by outfielder Jeff McNeil and first baseman Pete Alonso, who have combined to belt 37 home runs. McNeil is hitting .350/.410/.508 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 43 runs scored, while Alonso is hitting .277/.371/.623 with 30 homers, 68 RBIs and 57 runs scored.

The Mets have lost 17.7 units and are 29-40 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 39 of those games, compared to 24 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 1.0 units and are 30-35 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 26 of those games, compared to 35 that’ve cashed the under.

Mets vs. Marlins MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in just one of Miami’s last seven games.
  • The Mets have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
  • The Mets have a team OPS of .757 this season and an OPS of .741 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .659 overall and .655 versus righties.
  • New York has posted 20.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 18.6 over its last five.