New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick

The New York Mets are ready to square off against their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. SportsNet New York will be televising the action. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins Odds

Miami (+120) is coming into this one as the underdog against New York (-130) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at 8.5 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the current runline odds sitting at Mets -1.5 runs (+115) and Marlins 1.5 runs (-135).

The Mets are 9-1 SU and have gone 8-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 8.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline through the early portions of the year and 8.9 units ATS. New York’s covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Marlins are 3-8 SU and 3-7 ATS. They’ve lost 1.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.9 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Marlins games have a 5-5 over/under record thus far in 2018. New York has an over/under record of 4-5.

The Mets have gained 1.4 units and are 1-0 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in zero of those games, compared to one that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 0.5 units and are 2-4 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in three of those games, compared to three that’ve gone under.

Zack Wheeler will get the start for the visiting Mets. The right-handed Wheeler struck out 81 hitters in 86 innings last year (17 starts) while finishing the season 3-7 overall with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP.

The Marlins are turning to lefty Jarlin Garcia (0-0, 1.80 ERA), who started 0 games last year while finishing the season 1-2 overall with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have given up 6.4 runs per game overall in 2018. The teams starters have a 6.49 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.7 K/9. In five divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 9.61 and the bullpens ERA is 6.56.

Miami’s offense is putting up 3.5 runs per outing, including 3.0 per game over its last five. The teams hit .218/.279/.309 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

The Marlins offense has been led by third baseman Brian Anderson and left fielder Derek Dietrich. Anderson is hitting .317/.462/.488 with 13 hits, nine RBIs and eight runs scored, and Dietrich’s line is .327/.400/.449 with 16 hits, four RBIs and six runs.

Anderson enjoyed hitting against righty pitching at home last year. In 40 such plate appearances, he slashed .303/.425/.455 (his total season line was .262/.337/.369).

For the visitors, New York’s pitchers have allowed 3.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.42 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10.08 K/9. The bullpen has logged an outstanding ERA of just 1.56, along with a K/9 of 10.71.

Mets hitters have slashed .247/.349/.410 on their way to 5.1 runs scored per game this year, including over the teams last five outings (5-0 SU).

New York’s hitters have been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Cabrera is hitting .341/.400/.634 with 14 hits, five RBIs and nine runs scored, while Nimmo is hitting .333/.600/.444 with three hits, zero RBIs and four runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .280/.351/.434, Cabrera seemed to enjoy hitting lefties on the road last year, maintaining a slash line of .493/.545/.696 across 77 such plate appearances.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Marlins have lost six of their last seven games SU.
  • The New York defense has allowed six errors over its last five games, compared to three errors for Miami over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.