New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Mets are traveling west to Busch Stadium to square off against the St. Louis Cardinals. SportsNet New York will be airing this NL showdown and the game is slated to get underway at 8:15 p.m. ET.

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Vegas has listed St. Louis (-165) as the favorite over New York (+155). The total sits at 8 runs and bettors can take the over for -120 and the under for an even +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at -140 for the Mets +1.5 runs and +120 for the Cardinals -1.5.

The Cardinals are 13-8 SU and 12-9 ATS. The team’s gained 3.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.4 units against the spread (ATS). St. Louis has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Mets have gone 14-6 SU this year and are 12-8 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 8.0 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 6.3 units ATS. New York’s covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Cardinals games have a 10-11 over/under record thus far in 2018. Mets games have gone over 10 times, gone under 10 times and pushed on zero occasions.

The right-handed Zack Wheeler is getting the start for New York. Wheeler is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and nine strikeouts. He has yet to face St. Louis this year, but he made two starts against the Cardinals in 2017, posting a 0-2 record against them with a 4.76 ERA and 10 strikeouts.

The Cardinals are putting the ball in the right hand of Luke Weaver (2-1, 4.22 ERA), who has 20 strikeouts and six walks this season as well as a 1.27 WHIP. Weaver is 1-0 with three strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA against New York this year.

New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 10.32 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.47, along with a WHIP of 1.13.

The Mets offense has slashed .238/.336/.389 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 4.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier have led New York’s offense. Cabrera is slashing .354/.391/.608 with four home runs, 12 RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Frazier (.258/.400/.470) is up to three homers, 14 RBIs and 12 runs scored.

Frazier thrived batting against righties on the road last season. Over 228 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .261/.386/.505 (compared to his total season line of .214/.345/.425).

In the other dugout, St. Louis’ pitching staff has allowed 3.5 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.59 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 8.9 K/9.

St. Louis’ offense has put up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.6 per game over its last 10 games and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .248/.373/.416 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that span.

First baseman Jose Martinez and outfielder Tommy Pham have led the Cardinals’ batters so far. Martinez is hitting .329/.409/.526 with three home runs, 16 RBIs and seven runs scored, while Pham’s line sits at .318/.444/.455 with 21 hits, five RBIs, 18 runs and five stolen bases.

Compared to his total season slash line of .309/.379/.518, Martinez seemed to take a step back when hitting righty pitching last year, slashing .282/.346/.427 over 237 plate appearances.

The Mets have gained 4.5 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in eight of those games, compared to seven that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cardinals have netted 1.7 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to seven that went under.

New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Cardinals have won eight of their last nine games SU.
  • New York has posted 19.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.4 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Cardinals have hit 16 over their last 10.