New York Mets at San Diego Padres Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The San Diego Padres will try to avoid losing their fourth consecutive game they play host to the New York Mets at PETCO Park. This NL showdown will get going at 8:40 p.m. ET and Pix11 will broadcast the game.

New York Mets at San Diego Padres Odds

New York (+115) is the underdog to San Diego (-125) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8 runs. The odds for wagering on the games total stand at -105 for the under and -115 for the over. Runline odds sit at -180 for taking the Mets +1.5 runs and +160 for the Padres -1.5.

The Padres are just 9-18 SU and 10-16 ATS. They’ve lost 4.9 units for moneyline bettors and 10.6 units against the spread (ATS). San Diego has covered the spread just twice in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Mets have gone 16-8 SU this year and are 13-10 ATS. Overall, the teams accumulated 7.7 units for moneyline bettors in the seasons early going and 4.6 units ATS. New York is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.

San Diego games have an 11-13-2 over/under record so far in 2018. New York has an over/under record of 12-10-1.

Left-hander Jason Vargas will get the start for the visiting Mets. Vargas is 0-0 with an ERA. He has yet to face the Padres this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Padres are putting the ball in the left hand of Joey Lucchesi (2-1, 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), who has 29 strikeouts and eight walks. Lucchesi did not record any MLB pitching stats in 2017.

As a unit, San Diego’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 5.33, a WHIP of 1.62 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.73, a WHIP of 1.07 and a K/9 of 10.3.

The San Diego offense is putting up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.4 per game over its last 10 games and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .205/.281/.317 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Third baseman Christian Villanueva and first baseman Eric Hosmer have led the Padres offense this year. Villanueva is slashing .348/.434/.742 with seven home runs, 16 RBIs and 13 runs scored, and Hosmer is hitting .250 with 22 hits, four RBIs and 12 runs.

Hosmer appeared to take a step back when facing lefty pitching at home last season. Across 106 such plate appearances, he slashed .224/.274/.357 (compared to his total season line of .318/.385/.498).

For the visitors, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.64 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 10.03 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.40, along with a K/9 of 9.80.

The Mets offense has slashed .233/.330/.374 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.6 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 3.6 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier have led New York’s hitters. Cabrera is slashing .333/.379/.591 with five home runs, 15 RBIs and 18 runs scored, while Frazier (.256/.400/.427) is up to three homers, 15 RBIs and 14 runs scored.

Cabrera performed well against lefties on the road in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .493/.545/.696 across 77 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .280/.351/.434).

The Mets have gained 3.5 units and are 4-1 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in two of those games, compared to three that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Padres have lost 1.6 units and are 3-7 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in five of those games, as opposed to five which went under the total.

New York Mets at San Diego Padres Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Both teams have hit seven home runs over their last 10 games.
  • New York has recorded 21.0 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.8 over its last five.
  • The Padres have lost five of their last six games SU.