New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Mets will play the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will broadcast this NL matchup. The game is scheduled to get underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

New York (+145) is coming into this one as the underdog to Milwaukee (-155) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 9 runs. The odds for betting on the games total sit at -120 for the over and +100 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds standing at Mets +1.5 runs (-150) and Brewers -1.5 runs (+130).

The Mets have gone 25-22 SU this year and are 22-24 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 1.1 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 1.3 units ATS. New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 32-20 SU and 30-21 ATS. The teams gained 13.2 units for moneyline bettors and 6.8 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

Brewers games have an over/under record of 19-30-2 so far in 2018. New York has an over/under record of 20-25-1.

Southpaw Jason Vargas is projected to start for the visiting Mets. Vargas is 1-3 with a 9.87 ERA and 16 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Brewers will send righty Chase Anderson (4-3, 3.86 ERA) to the mound. Anderson has 33 strikeouts and 19 walks to his name, as well as a 1.13 WHIP. Anderson is 1-0 with five strikeouts and a 1.42 ERA in one start against New York this year.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff has given up 3.6 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.46, a WHIP of 1.11 and a K/9 of 10.2.

The Milwaukee hitters are putting up 4.0 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game over its last 10 games and 3.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .219/.301/.361 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Brewers offense has been led by right fielder Lorenzo Cain and third baseman Travis Shaw. Cain is hitting .280/.383/.440 with six home runs, 15 RBIs, 30 runs and 11 steals, while Shaw’s line is .254/.338/.541 with 13 homers, 34 RBIs and 30 runs.

Cain seemed to have a little trouble hitting lefty pitching at home in 2017, slashing .234/.290/.328 over 69 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .300/.363/.440).

For the visiting squad, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.76 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.72, along with a K-per-9 of 9.02.

The Mets offense has slashed .237/.316/.384 on its way to 4.0 runs scored per game this season, including 3.7 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 2.4 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

New York’s hitters have been powered by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is slashing .315/.357/.525 with seven home runs, 29 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Rosario is slashing .253/.276/.380 with three homers, 15 RBIs and 19 runs scored.

The Mets have gained 1.3 units and are 15-18 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 14 of those games, compared to 18 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Brewers have lost 0.3 units and are 5-7 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has cashed in five of those games, compared to seven that’ve gone under.

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Brewers have won four of their last five games SU.
  • The New York defense has allowed four errors over its last five games, compared to zero errors for Milwaukee over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 16 over their last 10.