New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Mets will head south to play their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. SportsNet New York will be airing the action and the game will get going at 7:35 p.m. ET.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Atlanta (-110) as the favorite over New York (+100). The total sits at 9 runs and bettors can take the over for +105 and the under for -125. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at Mets +1.5 runs (-210) and Braves +-1.5 runs (+175).

The Mets are 13-4 SU and are 10-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 8.7 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 5.6 units ATS. New York has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 10-7 SU and 11-5 ATS. The team has gained 5.0 units for moneyline bettors and 6.0 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven outings and the total has gone under in six of those seven.

Braves games have a 5-8-3 over/under record thus far in 2018. The Mets have an over/under record of 7-9.

Matt Harvey will get the nod for New York. The right-handed Harvey is 0-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 13 strikeouts. He has yet to face Atlanta this year, but he made four starts against the team in 2017, posting a 1-2 record with a 5.91 ERA and 10 strikeouts.

The Braves will put the ball in the right hand of Matt Wisler (0-0, ERA), who’s got zero strikeouts and zero walks this season as well as a WHIP. Wisler only made one start against the Mets in 2017 (0-1, 9.00 ERA and nine strikeouts across 11 innings).

New York’s pitching staff allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 10.49 K/9. The bullpen has logged an excellent ERA of just 2.56, along with a K-per-9 of 10.37.

The Mets offense has slashed .242/.342/.402 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier have led New York’s hitters. Cabrera is hitting .343/.384/.612 with 23 hits, eight RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Frazier has a .291 average with 16 hits, two homers, 13 RBIs and 10 runs scored.

Frazier enjoyed hitting against righties on the road last season. Over 228 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .261/.386/.505 (compared to his total season line of .214/.345/.425).

In the home-team dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 3.8 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have a 3.41 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.09 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 12 games against NL East opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.96 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.13.

The Atlanta offense has put up 5.4 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .286/.365/.400 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Braves’ offense has been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Dansby Swanson. Freeman is slashing .288/.468/.492 with 17 hits, 12 RBIs and 12 runs scored, while Swanson’s line is .358/.394/.582 with 24 hits, 11 RBIs and nine runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .307/.403/.586, Freeman performed well against righty pitching at home in 2017, slashing .362/.475/.638 over 160 such plate appearances.

The Mets have gained 6.2 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in six of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 4.5 units and are 10-4 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to seven that went under the total.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Atlanta has recorded 20.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.8 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 10 over their last 10.