New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

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The ice-cold Philadelphia Phillies are trying to avoid their eighth straight loss when they play host to the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The game gets underway 7:05 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York is in line to broadcast the matchup.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas is listing Philadelphia (-120) as the favorite over New York (+110). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -125 for over nine runs and +105 for under nine. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at -190 for the Mets +1.5 runs and +165 for the Phillies -1.5 runs.

The Mets are 37-41 SU and have gone 37-40 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 10.0 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 8.1 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 39-38 SU and 36-40 ATS. They’ve lost 5.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 5.7 units ATS.

Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 35-39-2 so far in 2019. The Mets have been a decent over bet with a total record of 43-28-6.

Steven Matz will get the nod for the Mets. The southpaw Matz is 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA and 74 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with six strikeouts and a 10.50 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).

The Phillies are putting the ball in the hands of righty Zach Eflin (6-7, 2.83 ERA), who has 73 strikeouts and 22 walks, along with a 1.16 WHIP. Eflin is 0-1 with three strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA in one start against New York this year.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.8 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have a 4.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.70 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 33 games against divisional foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.35 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.45.

The Philadelphia hitters have put up 4.7 runs per outing, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .206/.294/.325 over its last five games and is 0-5 SU during that span.

Cesar Hernandez has helped lead the Phillies’ offense this season with seven home runs, 33 RBIs and 34 runs scored.

For the visitors, New York’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.14 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.30, along with a WHIP of 1.27.

The Mets offense has slashed .252/.327/.430 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Jeff McNeil has sparked New York’s offense so far and is slashing .342/.407/.494 with five home runs, 27 RBIs and 32 runs scored.

The Phillies are coming off of a 6-4 loss against the Marlins, while the Mets just dropped a 5-3 game to the Cubs.

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in four of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • The Mets have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
  • The Mets have an OPS of .758 this season and an OPS of .731 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .733 overall and .721 versus righties.
  • New York has posted 23.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 21.6 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have dropped nine of their last 10 games SU.