New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Mets will be squaring off against their divisional rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. SportsNet New York will be televising the matchup and the game gets underway at 6:05 p.m. ET.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Philadelphia (+115) is the home-team underdog to New York (-125) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this night game at 7.5 runs (-120 for the under and +100 for the over). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds coming in at Mets -1.5 runs (+120) and Phillies +1.5 runs (-140).

The Phillies are 77-73 straight up (SU) and 68-81 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.0 units for moneyline bettors and 22.9 units (ATS). The Mets have gone 70-81 SU this year and are 75-74 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 11.1 units for moneyline bettors and 5.8 units ATS.

Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 68-75-6 in 2018. Mets games have gone under 74 times, gone over 66 times and pushed on nine instances.

The right-handed Noah Syndergaard is the probable starter for the visiting Mets. Syndergaard is 12-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 138 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with 16 strikeouts and a 5.51 ERA against Philadelphia this year (three starts).

The Phillies are putting the ball in the right hand of Zach Eflin (10-7, 4.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), who’s got 111 strikeouts and 31 walks this season. Eflin is 1-1 with 14 strikeouts and a 7.98 ERA over three starts against New York this year.

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.01, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.0. The bullpen has a 3.96 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 68 games against NL East foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.09 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.43.

The Philadelphia offense is putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .250/.346/.457 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and outfielder Odubel Herrera have led the Phillies’ offense this year. Hernandez is hitting .256/.359/.362 with 13 home runs, 54 RBIs, 86 runs and 19 steals, while Herrera’s line is .255/.313/.423 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 63 runs.

In the other dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.14 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.99, along with a WHIP of 1.20 and a K-per-9 of 8.50.

Mets hitters have slashed .236/.315/.394 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto have led New York’s offense. The speedy Rosario is hitting .256/.294/.390 with nine home runs, 49 RBIs, 72 runs and 19 steals, while Conforto (.241/.342/.439) has produced 26 homers, 75 RBIs and 72 runs scored.

The Mets have lost 4.0 units and are 55-53 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 50 of those games, as opposed to 52 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 5.8 units and are 52-61 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 59 that went under the total.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in only two of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 21.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.8 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 13 over their last 10.