New York Mets at Miami Marlins Free Preview

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The New York Mets are traveling south to square off against their division rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. SportsNet New York will televise the matchup and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins Odds

Vegas has placed matching moneyline odds (-105) on each team. The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on either the over or the under for -110. You can also bet on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at +140 for the Mets -1.5 runs and -160 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Marlins are 44-44 against the spread (ATS), but just 33-55 straight up (SU). The team’s lost 2.2 units for moneyline bettors and 9.4 units ATS. The Mets are 40-50 SU and have gone 41-49 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 18.1 units for moneyline gamblers and 15.9 units ATS.

Marlins games have an over/under record of 38-44-6 thus far in 2019. The Mets have been a solid over bet with a total record of 50-32-8.

Jason Vargas will get the start for the visiting Mets. The southpaw Vargas is 3-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 63 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with two strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA against Miami this year.

The Marlins will turn to lefty Caleb Smith (4-4, 3.50 ERA), who has 88 strikeouts and 21 walks, in addition to a 1.01 WHIP. Smith is 0-0 with eight strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA in one start against New York this year.

Miami’s pitching staff has yielded 4.5 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 46 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.75 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.79.

Miami’s hitters have put up 3.5 runs per outing, including 3.5 per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .261/.314/.367 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Miguel Rojas and second baseman Starlin Castro have led the Marlins’ hitters this year. Rojas is hitting .295/.352/.374 with 90 hits, 26 RBIs and 32 runs scored, and Castro’s line sits at .245/.272/.336 with six homers, 34 RBIs and 24 runs.

In the other dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 9.24 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.63, along with a K/9 of 9.40.

The Mets offense has slashed .254/.327/.431 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

New York’s hitters have been led by outfielder Jeff McNeil and first baseman Pete Alonso, who have combined to swat 37 home runs. McNeil is slashing .349/.409/.509 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 41 runs scored. Alonso is hitting .280/.372/.634 with 30 homers, 68 RBIs and 57 runs scored.

The Mets have lost 0.4 units and are 12-9 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 11 of those games, as opposed to eight that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 1.2 units and are 14-9 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 12 of those games, compared to nine that’ve cashed the under.

Mets at Marlins Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in four of New York’s last seven contests.
  • The Mets have an OPS of .758 this season, including an OPS of .810 against left-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .657 overall and .654 against southpaws.
  • New York has recorded 21.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.0 over its last five.
  • The Mets have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit eight over their last 10.