New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons: Week 3 Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons will face off on the dome of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This early afternoon game gets underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to FOX.

Betting Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

New Orleans is the road underdog in this NFC game and is currently getting 3 points. The Saints are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -150. There will probably be some solid live betting possibilities for this game, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 53 points.

Betting odds have shifted some from where they were originally posted. The opening line was -4 while the game’s total was set initially at 52.5.

The disappointing Saints are down 3.8 units so far and 0-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 1-1.

The Falcons are down 0.1 units this season. The team is 1-1 ATS and also has an O/U record of 1-1.

The Saints have gone 1-1 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against NFC South opponents. The Falcons are 1-1 SU overall and 1-0 SU against divisional foes.

The Saints enter after a 21-18 win over Cleveland last week. Drew Brees completed 28 passes on 35 attempts for 243 yards and two touchdowns. Alvin Kamara (46 yards on 13 rushes) led the ground attack while Michael Thomas (12 receptions, 89 yards, two TDs) and Kamara (six catches, 53 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Atlanta enters this one having just earned a 31-24 win over Carolina last week. The defensive unit let the Panthers pass for 335 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 121 yards. Christian McCaffrey had a good outing in the loss for Carolina, posting 37 rushing yards on eight attempts, along with 102 yards and a score on 14 catches. For Atlanta, Matt Ryan completed 23-of-28 passes for 272 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Tevin Coleman (107 rushing yards on 16 attempts) mounted the running game while Julio Jones (five receptions, 64 yards) and Austin Hooper (five catches, 59 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

New Orleans has run the ball on 31.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Atlanta has an overall rush percentage of 41.3 percent. The Saints have produced 52.5 rush yards per game and have two scores on the ground this year. The Falcons are putting up 122.0 rush yards per game (170.0 in conference) and have three total rushing TDs.

The Saints offensive scheme has averaged an astonishing 341.0 yards in the air overall and has five passing scores so far. The Falcons have put up 261.5 pass yards per contest (272 against NFC foes) and have two total pass TDs.

New Orleans has let opponents rush for an average of 102.5 yards and pass for 331.5 yards per game. The Atlanta defense has allowed 233.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 117.0 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.85 to opponents, while the Saints have allowed a staggering 11.57 ANY/A.

Ryan has completed 23-of-28 passes for 272 yards, two TDs and one INT for Atlanta. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 9.54 for the year and 5.96 over his last two outings. In the other huddle, Brees is up to 243 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 28-of-35 attempts with two passing touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Brees has a 6.66 ANY/An overall, although that number sits at 8.87 over the last two outings.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Free Prediction

SU Winner: Falcons, ATS Winner: Saints, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • New Orleans was favored by 10 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 51. The under cashed and New Orleans failed to cover in the 21-18 victory over Cleveland.
  • The Atlanta offense has lost zero fumbles this season while New Orleans has let four get away.
  • Atlanta was favored by 5 points in its last matchup and the Over/Under was set at 43.5. The over cashed and Atlanta covered in the team’s 31-24 victory over Carolina.
  • Both passing attacks have produced zero pass plays of 40 yards or more and two pass plays of 30+ yards.
  • The New Orleans defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Atlanta has given up zero such plays.
  • The New Orleans offense has created zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Atlanta has created one such run.
  • Both teams have allowed one rushing plays of 20 yards or more and three running plays of 10+ yards.
  • The Atlanta defensive unit has created four sacks on the year while New Orleans has three.