New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The New Orleans Pelicans (4-5) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-4) battle at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Pelicans are 4.5-point underdogs and look to put an end to their five-game losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 238 points and it can be seen on NBATV at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, November 5, 2018.

New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Odds

In the Thunder’s previous matchup, they blew out the Washington Wizards, 134-111, as 3.5-point underdogs. The Pelicans, meanwhile, were topped by the San Antonio Spurs, 109-95, and were unable to cover as 2-point underdogs. The Oklahoma City game finished 12 points over the projected point total of 233, while the New Orleans game finished 23 points under the projected point total of 227.

Oklahoma City played a flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.244 (above their season average of 0.215) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.6 (below their season average of 27.6). For those same stats, Washington was 0.163 and 16.2, respectively. New Orleans, on the other hand, had a much better free throw rate (0.221 vs. 0.115). Oklahoma City rallied around Russell Westbrook, who finished with 23 points and 12 assists. Nikola Mirotic played well for New Orleans, putting up 22 points and 16 rebounds.

The Pelicans held the advantage in this series last year, winning two out of three games. In the most recent contest, Oklahoma City won 109-104. Oklahoma City won the rebounding battle. The Thunder had 14 offensive rebounds and 51 total rebounds, while the Pelicans had seven and 44, respectively.

Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Pelicans are playing, as five of their nine games have ended over the O/U total. New Orleans comes into the game with records of 4-5 straight up (SU) and 4-5 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Thunder games, with an even split between overs and unders. Further, Oklahoma City is 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS.

Oklahoma City appears to have an advantage on the offensive glass in this showdown. The Thunder rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (27.2 percent), while New Orleans ranks 15th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.1 percent) dating back to last season.

New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2017-Present):

  • The Pelicans rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while the Thunder rank eighth (4.6).
  • New Orleans ranks second in assists per game (26.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (21.1).
  • The Thunder rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while the Pelicans rank 18th (17.4).
  • Oklahoma City ranks 10th in rebounds per game (45.2) while New Orleans ranks 19th in rebounds allowed per game (45.5).
  • New Orleans ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (53.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 10th in points allowed in the paint per game (44.1).
  • The Thunder rank third in steals per game (9.2) while the Pelicans rank 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
  • The Thunder rank 12th in fast break points per game (15.1) while the Pelicans rank 19th in fast break points allowed per game (14.8).
  • Oklahoma City averages 15.2 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
  • New Orleans is 13-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 23-6.
  • The Thunder are 50-21 when they reach the century mark, while the Pelicans are 53-29.