It will be a battle between two phenomenal offenses when the Houston Rockets (58-14), 9.5-point favorites, go head-to-head with the New Orleans Pelicans (43-30) at Toyota Center. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 228 points and it will air on NBATV at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 24, 2018.
New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets ATS Odds
Both teams were triumphant in their last game. The Rockets defeated the Detroit Pistons 100-96, while the Pelicans edged the Los Angeles Lakers 128-125.
New Orleans 6.3 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Los Angeles, who had a rate of 13.9. The Pelicans mark was better than their season average of 13.0. The Rockets, meanwhile, had a better free throw rate (0.182 vs. 0.105) and had a turnover percentage of 9.7 (better than their season average of 12.2). James Harden had a good game for Houston, recording 21 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Anthony Davis fueled New Orleans with 33 points and nine rebounds.
The high-octane offense of Houston will face off against the mid-tier defense of New Orleans. The Rockets currently rank first in offensive efficiency, while the Pelicans are 15th in defensive efficiency. The Rockets should have the edge on that side of the ball. Moreover, second chance points could be tough to come by for the Pelicans. They rank 28th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 19.8 percent, while the Rockets are third-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 80.0 percent).
Pelicans games have a tendency to go over the total (60.3 percent). New Orleans comes into the contest with records of 43-30 straight up (SU) and 40-32-1 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike New Orleans, a little over half of Rockets games have finished under the projected point total. Further, Houston is 58-14 SU and 37-33-2 ATS.
E’Twaun Moore has been playing at a high level as of late for New Orleans, averaging 13.8 points and 3.2 assists over the last five games.
The Rockets lead the season series two games to one. The two teams combined to score 208 points in their most recent game, which was well under the projected point total of 226.5. Houston won 107-101 but was unable to cover as an 8.5-point favorite. The Rockets turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Pelicans. Houston had a rate of 6.5, while New Orleans posted a mark of 12.0. Harden recorded a double-double with 32 points and 11 rebounds.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Under
- The Rockets average 17.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 21st in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
- Houston averages 42.1 three pointers per game, which ranks first in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6).
- The Pelicans rank second in assists per game (26.5) while the Rockets rank 24th (21.7).
- Houston ranks fifth in steals per game (8.5) while New Orleans ranks 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.1).
- New Orleans ranks third in blocks per game (5.9) while Houston ranks 16th (4.7).
- The Pelicans rank second in points in the paint per game (52.0) while the Rockets rank 28th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.3).
- The Rockets rank 12th in second chance points allowed per game (11.9) while the Pelicans rank 27th (13.6).
- Houston ranks 15th in fast break points allowed per game (11.6) while New Orleans ranks 28th (14.5).
- Houston ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while New Orleans ranks 26th (45.4).
- When allowing below 100 points, Houston is 27-2 and New Orleans is 10-2.
- The Pelicans are 40-19 when they score more than 100 points, while the Rockets are 56-11.
- New Orleans is 23-13 ATS on the road, while Houston is 13-20-1 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 18 of the Pelicans 36 road games, while 17 of the Rockets 34 home games have gone over.
- In their last five games, New Orleans and Houston have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Pelicans are 4-0-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Rockets are 1-3-1.
- The Pelicans average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.0, up from 0.7 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 110.4 points per game (3.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.8 points per game (0.1 above their season average).