New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction 03/18/19

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The New Orleans Pelicans (30-42) visit American Airlines Center to go head-to-head with the Dallas Mavericks (28-41). The Pelicans look to put an end to their six-game losing streak. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 18, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans.

New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds

In their last contest, the Mavericks (5-point favorites) were victorious over the Cleveland Cavaliers, 121-116, while the Pelicans (4.5-point favorites) lost a close one to the Phoenix Suns, 138-136. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Dallas game went 20 points over the projected point total of 217, while the New Orleans game went 39 points over the projected point total of 235.

Dallas dominated nearly every stat category in the contest. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.0 (above their season average of 22.9) and a turnover percentage of 4.9 (better than their season average of 12.8). Cleveland was 18.4 and 5.8, respectively, for those same stats. New Orleans, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.7 (above their season average of 24.2). Maxi Kleber played well for Dallas with 18 points and 12 rebounds. Meanwhile, New Orleans rallied around Elfrid Payton, who notched his third consecutive triple-double (fourth of the year). He took over, racking up 16 points, 16 assists and 13 rebounds.

In three matchups against each other this year, the Pelicans have won two. The two teams combined to score 226 points in their most recent game, which was just under the projected point total of 228. New Orleans won 114-112 but was unable to cover as a 5-point favorite. New Orleans had a much better turnover percentage (9.3 vs. 14.7). Dallas, on the other hand, had a better free throw rate (0.295 vs. 0.229). Anthony Davis recorded a double-double with 48 points and 17 rebounds.

Of the Pelicans’ 72 games, 38 have finished over the O/U total. New Orleans heads into the game with records of 30-42 straight up (SU) and 34-37-1 against the spread (ATS).

Mavericks games have typically gone under the projected point total (55.1 percent). Moreover, Dallas owns records of 28-41 SU and 39-29-1 ATS.

The Pelicans’ Payton has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 13 points,10.2 rebounds,9.2 assists per game. Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson has averaged 20 points,5.8 assists during that same time frame for the Mavericks.

The physical Dallas offense might be getting to the foul line a lot in this matchup. The Mavericks currently rank fourth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.220, while New Orleans ranks 15th in FTA rate allowed (0.196). It will also be a tale of two styles as the up-and-down Pelicans rank fourth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Mavericks rank 21st.

Pelicans at Mavericks Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Pelicans rank fifth in rebounds per game (47.2) while the Mavericks rank 19th (44.9).
  • New Orleans ranks first in points in the paint per game (58.6) while Dallas ranks 25th (44.5).
  • The Mavericks average 35.9 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (33.2).
  • Dallas ranks 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.9) while New Orleans ranks 27th (18.0).
  • New Orleans ranks fifth in second chance points per game (14.4) while Dallas ranks 19th (12.9).
  • The Pelicans rank sixth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Mavericks rank 27th (4.3).
  • The Pelicans average 14.9 fast break points per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 27th in fast break points allowed per game (16.2).
  • New Orleans ranks 17th in steals per game (7.5) while Dallas ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.1).
  • New Orleans ranks fourth in assists per game (27.1) while Dallas ranks 24th (22.8).
  • In games where they allow less than 100 points, New Orleans is 5-2 and Dallas is 10-4.
  • The Pelicans are 30-36 when they score over 100 points, while the Mavericks are 27-31.
  • New Orleans is 18-18-1 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 22-12-1 ATS at home.
  • In 37 road games, the Pelicans have 21 overs and 16 unders.
  • The Mavericks have 21 unders and 14 overs in 35 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Pelicans are 0-5.
  • In their last five games, Dallas has 3 unders and 2 overs, while New Orleans has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 104.8 points per game (3.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.6 points per game (3.0 below their season average).
  • The Pelicans’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 13.2, up from 0.2 for the season.