New Mexico Lobos vs. UNLV Rebels: NCAA Football Free Betting Preview

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The Rebels (-11) are set to welcome the New Mexico Lobos to Unlv. ATSN will televise the action and kickoff will take place at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos vs. UNLV Rebels

In this Saturday Mountain West matchup, UNLV is getting picked as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 11 points. The Lobos are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Rebels are -450. If one side gets out in front early it would produce a nice live betting opportunity. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 67 points.

Square bettors are siding with the Lobos, as the line opened at -14. The game’s total has not moved after it was initially set at 67.

The Lobos are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.0 units so far. The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 3-0.

The Rebels have lost 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-1.

The Lobos have gone 2-2 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any MWC competition yet. The Rebels are 2-2 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.

When these two programs met last year, UNLV knocked off New Mexico by a field goal 38-35.

The Lobos fell to Liberty 52-43 in a matchup where the passing attack wasn’t where it needed to be as the Lobos completed 21-of-41 passes for 369 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. Sheriron Jones went 15-for-27 for 312 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions while Tevaka Tuioti completed six-of-14 for 57 yards and one interception. Tyrone Owens (93 rushing yards on 15 attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground attack while Delane Hart-Johnson (five receptions, 83 yards, one TD) and Elijah Lilly (three catches, 57 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

A couple of weeks ago, Arkansas State took care of this UNLV team by a score of 27-20. Armani Rogers completed five-of-21 passes for 23 yards and three interceptions. Rogers (181 yards on 26 rush attempts, one TD) and Lexington Thomas (82 yards on 18 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game while Evan Owens (one receptions, 1 yards) and Brandon Presley (one catch, five yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

New Mexico has run the ball on 64.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UNLV has a rush percentage of 71.9 percent. The Lobos have produced 201.3 rush yards per game and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Rebels are averaging 336.5 rushing yards per game and have 13 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then the Rebels ought to own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has generated 6.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.9 YPC to opponents. The Lobos have registered 4.1 yards per carry while allowing 5.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Lobos offense has averaged 247.8 yards in the air overall and has 11 passing scores so far. The Rebels have produced 92.3 pass yards per game and have six total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico has allowed 219.0 rush yards and 298.5 pass yards per game. The UNLV D has allowed 210.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 180.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Lobos have given up an ANY/A of 6.29 to opposing QBs, while the Rebels are allowing an ANY/A of 6.30.

Jones has been more effective than Rogers lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.31for the year (and 6.24 over the past two games). Rogers’ ANY/A is 2.17 for the year and -0.67 over his last two outings.

New Mexico Lobos vs. UNLV Rebels NCAA Tip

SU Winner: UNLV, ATS Winner: UNLV, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The UNLV D has tallied nine sacks on the year while New Mexico has eight.
  • UNLV has lost four fumbles in 2018 while New Mexico has let three get away.
  • The Lobos offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Rebels have put up one such play.
  • The New Mexico defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UNLV has given up three such plays.
  • The New Mexico offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UNLV has created 16 such runs.
  • The Lobos defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Rebels have given up 11 such runs.
  • UNLV was favored by 8 points in its previous matchup and the O/U was set at 66. The under cashed and UNLV failed to cover in the 27-20 loss to Arkansas State.
  • In its last three contests, New Mexico is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • New Mexico was favored by 7 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 65. The over cashed and New Mexico was not able to cover in the 52-43 defeat to Liberty.
  • New Mexico has averaged 3.76744186046512 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.
  • UNLV has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.5 over its last two.