New Mexico Lobos vs. Colorado State Rams: NCAA Football Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The New Mexico Lobos and Colorado State Rams are ready to do battle on the turf at Canvas Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on ATSN and kickoff for this MWC showdown is set for 4:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Colorado State Rams vs. New Mexico Lobos

In this Saturday Mountain West game, Colorado State is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 2 points. The Lobos are also receiving +100 moneyline odds while the Rams are -120. If one school gets out in front in the early stages, it will probably produce a reasonable betting opportunity in-game.

The game’s line originally opened at -1, but has recently shifted.

The Lobos have gained 0.8 units so far in 2018 and are 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-0.

The Rams have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 11.0 units. They’re 2-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-4.

The Lobos have gone 3-2 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Rams are 2-4 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.

These two programs faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 27-24 victory for Colorado State.

The Lobos are coming off a resounding 50-14 win over UNLV last week where Sheriron Jones completed 13-of-20 passes for 250 yards and four touchdowns. Tyrone Owens (just 41 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and Zahneer Shuler (53 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) provided the ground attack while Delane Hart-Johnson (six receptions, 80 yards, one TD) and Jay Griffin IV (three catches, 30 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Colorado State just earned a 42-30 win over San Jose State. The team’s defensive unit did its duty in the victory, limiting the Spartans to just 237 passing yards and 48 rushing yards. Tre Hartley was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 96 yards and two touchdowns on four catches for San Jose State. For Colorado State, K.J. Carta-Samuels completed 14-of-27 passes for 162 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Izzy Matthews (125 yards on 22 rush attempts, one TD) led the running game as Preston Williams (four receptions, 67 yards, two TDs) and Warren Jackson (four catches, 44 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

New Mexico has run the ball on 66.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Colorado State has an overall rush percentage of 44.9 percent. The Lobos have produced 211.4 rush yards per game and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Rams are averaging 113.7 rush yards per game (167.5 in conference) and have two total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Lobos may be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up only 15 sacks while the D-line logged 21 sacks. The Rams offensive line has given up 13 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 27 occasions.

The Lobos offensive scheme has averaged 248.2 yards through the air overall and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Rams have recorded 296.0 pass yards per outing (355 against MWC foes) and have 16 total pass scores.

New Mexico has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 183.8 yards and pass for 263.4 yards per game. The Colorado State D has allowed 253.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 215.5 yards per game on the ground. The Lobos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.39 to opponents, while the Rams have allowed an 8.44 ANY/A.

Offensively, Jones has put up 478 passing yards this year, and has connected on 60 percent of his 58 attempts with six passing scores and three interceptions. Jones has a 7.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 12.19 over the past two outings.

As a group, Elijah Lilly, Tyrone Owens and Delane Hart-Johnson have collectively accounted for 503 total yards and seven touchdowns over the last two outings.

K.J. Carta-Samuels has managed to complete 119-of-190 passes for 1,481 yards, 13 TDs and five INTs for Colorado State. His ANY/A sits at 7.17 for the season and 4.93 across his last two games.

We’re expecting the Rams to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Olabisi Johnson (345 receiving yards, three TDs this season) has contributed lately, but Izzy Matthews (262 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Marvin Kinsey Jr. (108 rush yards, 34 receiving yards) have been significant focal points in the Colorado State offense.

New Mexico Lobos at Colorado State Rams NCAA Prediction

SU Winner: Colorado State, ATS Winner: Colorado State

Team Betting Notes

  • The Lobos offense has recorded nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Rams have put up four such plays.
  • The New Mexico defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Colorado State has given up 10 such plays.
  • The New Mexico offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Colorado State has created six such runs.
  • The Lobos defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Rams have given up 10 such runs.
  • The New Mexico defense has 13 sacks on the year while Colorado State has eight.
  • New Mexico, as a team, has averaged 4.15723270440252 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Colorado State has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.6 over its last two.
  • Over its last three matchups, Colorado State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • New Mexico was favored by 9 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 63. The over cashed and New Mexico covered in the 50-14 win over UNLV.
  • Over its last three matchups, New Mexico is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • Colorado State was the underdog by 3 points in its last match and the O/U going into it was 60. The over cashed and Colorado State covered in that 42-30 victory over San Jose State.