The Colorado State Rams (11-19, 4-13 MWC) will bring the regular season to a conclusion when they clash with the New Mexico Lobos (15-14, 10-6 MWC) at Moby Arena. New Mexico is a 4.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 161.5 points. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 28, 2018.
New Mexico Lobos at Colorado State Rams Odds Preview
The Lobos barely escaped the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in their last matchup, 91-90. With 17 points and 10 rebounds, Sam Logwood put together a solid outing for New Mexico. New Mexico’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over UNLV. The Lobos had a rate of 0.598 (above their season average of 0.535), while the Runnin’ Rebels posted a mark of 0.517.
The last time the Rams played, they were defeated by the No. 20 Nevada Wolf Pack, 92-83. Prentiss Nixon was the top scorer from either team with 27 points on 9-for-24 shooting. Nevada had a turnover percentage of 7.3 (better than their season average of 12.9). Colorado State, on the other hand, made 13 of their 32 three pointers (40.6 percent).
This has potential to be an error-filled game for the offense of Colorado State. Colorado State ranks 188th in the nation in ball protection (turnover percentage of 18.8 percent), while the pesky defense of New Mexico forces the 11th-most turnovers in the NCAA (23.2 percent).
Of New Mexico’s 26 games that accepted bets, 13 have finished over the O/U total, while 16 of Colorado State’s 26 games have finished over the projected point total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Lobos have a sizable advantage. They are 15-14 SU and 14-13 ATS, while the Rams are 11-19 SU and 9-15-2 ATS.
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined for 145 points, which was under the projected point total of 150.5. The Lobos won 80-65, covering as 11-point favorites. The Lobos dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a turnover percentage of 10.4 and a free throw rate of 0.204. The Rams were 30.1 and 0.163, respectively, for those same stats. Antino Jackson recorded a double-double with 12 points and 11 assists.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Colorado State Rams Odds Prediction
Basketball Pick: SU Winner – New Mexico, ATS Winner – New Mexico, O/U – Over
- The Lobos rank 42nd in steals per game (7.4) while the Rams rank 154th (5.8).
- Colorado State ranks 30th in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while New Mexico ranks 117th (3.4).
- Colorado State is 5-5-2 ATS at home, while New Mexico is 5-8 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 7 of the Rams’ 12 home games, while 7 of the Lobos’ 13 road games have gone over.
- New Mexico averages 29.8 three pointers per game, which ranks fifth in the nation. Colorado State ranks 281st in three pointers allowed per game (26.2).
- The Rams rank 59th in rebounds per game (38.1) while the Lobos rank 278th (31.3).
- New Mexico ranks 44th in assists per game (16.0) while Colorado State ranks 247th in assists allowed per game (15.7).
- Colorado State is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, New Mexico is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Rams’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 11.4, up from 6.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Lobos have scored an average of 90.2 points per game (9.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 88.0 points per game (10.7 above their season average).