New Mexico Lobos at Air Force Falcons – College Football ATS Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

In a battle of two schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Bob Davie and the New Mexico Lobos (+14) are gearing up to face off against their in-conference counterpart Air Force Falcons (-14) at Falcon Stadium. The afternoon game is scheduled to get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and you can witness the action live on CBS Sports Network.

Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos at Air Force Falcons

In this Saturday Mountain West game, Air Force is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently need to put up $600 in order to win $100 back on the Falcons (-600). The Lobos are getting +425 moneyline odds. There should be some good live betting opportunities while this game’s underway, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.

The opening line was -14. The game’s over/under hasn’t moved since it opened at 55.5.

The Lobos have lost 3.6 units so far and are 4-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 6-2.

The Falcons have lost 3.8 units this season. The team is 5-3-1 ATS and has an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Lobos are 3-6 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against MWC opponents. The Falcons are 3-6 SU overall and are also 1-4 SU in conference play.

The Lobos came up short to San Diego State 31-23 in a game where their defense allowed the Aztecs to run for 161 yards on 40 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. On the offensive side, Coltin Gerhart completed only nine passes on 20 attempts for 41 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Zahneer Shuler (two receptions, two yards) and Jay Griffin IV (two catches, 10 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Air Force most-recently fell 17-14 to Army West Point. As a group, the Falcons collectively completed 12-of-22 passes for 197 yards and one interception. Donald Hammond III went seven-for-15 for 120 yards while Isaiah Sanders was five-of-seven for 77 yards and one interception. Hammond III (30 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) handled the running game as Geraud Sanders (three receptions, 55 yards) and Brandon Lewis (three catches, 32 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

New Mexico has run the ball on 62.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Air Force has an overall rush percentage of 79.0 percent. The Lobos have produced 167.9 rush yards per game (including 141.2 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are logging 241.2 rush yards per game (249.4 in conference) and have 24 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Falcons might hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has logged 4.2 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Lobos have recorded 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 YPC to opponents.

The Lobos offense has logged 199.9 yards/contest through the air overall (161.6 per game against conference opposition) and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Falcons have recorded 144.1 pass yards per contest (153 against MWC competition) and have seven total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico has allowed 170.3 rush yards and 296.0 pass yards per game. The Air Force defense has allowed 234.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.2 yards per game on the ground. The Lobos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.50 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up a staggering 8.56 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Gerhart is up to 53 yards on the year, and has completed 48 percent of his 21 attempts with two passing scores and one interception. He has a 0.74 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.45 over the last two outings.

The Lobos will likely try to maintain tempo by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Daevon Vigilant (93 rush yards) and Tyrone Owens (543 rush yards, six rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been big focal points in the offensive gameplans for New Mexico.

In the home locker room, Isaiah Sanders has connected on 38-of-63 passes for 634 yards, two TDs and three INTs. Sanders’ ANY/A sits at 7.97 for the year and 10.96 over his last two outings.

The Falcons should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Joseph Saucier (61 receiving yards), Isaiah Sanders (369 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Geraud Sanders (223 receiving yards) have seen a multitude of looks recently.

When these two schools met last year, New Mexico got the victory over Air Force, 56-38.

New Mexico Lobos vs. Air Force Falcons NCAA Prediction

SU Winner: New Mexico, ATS Winner: New Mexico, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The O/U for New Mexico’s previous game was 45.5. The over cashed in the team’s 31-23 defeat to San Diego State.
  • New Mexico has rushed for 3.2 yards per attempt across its last three games and 2.6 over its last two.
  • Air Force has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.8 over its past two.
  • Air Force has lost seven fumbles this season while New Mexico has let six get away.
  • Over its last three matches, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • New Mexico has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 36-point win over UNLV on October 6th representing the only victory over that stretch.
  • The O/U for Air Force’s last game was set at 41.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-14 loss to Army West Point.
  • In its last three games, Air Force is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Air Force has lost four of its last five games SU, with a six-point win over UNLV on October 19th accounting for its only victory over that stretch.
  • The Lobos offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Falcons have put up four such plays.
  • The New Mexico defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Air Force has given up eight such plays.
  • The New Mexico offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Air Force has created 11 such runs.
  • The Lobos defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Falcons have given up 11 such runs.
  • The New Mexico defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this year. Air Force has produced just 11 sacks.