New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles – Free Week 11 Betting Pick

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The New England Patriots (-3.5) and Philadelphia Eagles will do battle on the grass at Lincoln Financial Field. This crucial late afternoon matchup kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS.

Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots

In this Sunday game, New England is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 3.5 points. The Patriots are also receiving -160 moneyline odds while the Eagles are +140. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 44.5 points, and if one team can get out in front in the early stages, it’ll probably create a decent in-game betting scenario.

Sharp bettors have been siding with the under, as the game’s O/U originally opened at 46.

The Patriots have gained 2.5 units so far and are 6-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-6.

The Eagles are up 0.6 units this season. The team is 4-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-4.

The Patriots are 8-1 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Eagles are 5-4 SU.

The Patriots fell to Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 blowout where their defense allowed the Ravens to eat up the clock by running for 210 yards on 41 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Mark Ingram II had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 115 rushing yards on 15 attempts. On the offense, Tom Brady completed 30 passes for 285 yards, along with a score and a pick. James White (38 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Julian Edelman (10 receptions, 89 yards) and Mohamed Sanu (10 catches, 81 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Philadelphia just picked up a 22-14 win over Chicago. The defensive unit did its job in the victory, holding the Bears to just 125 passing yards and 62 rushing yards. David Montgomery had a good showing in the loss for Chicago, recording 40 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 14 attempts, along with 36 yards on three catches. For Philadelphia, Carson Wentz completed 26-of-39 passes for 239 yards and one touchdown. Jordan Howard (82 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and Miles Sanders (42 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game while Zach Ertz (nine receptions, 103 yards, one TD) and Alshon Jeffery (four catches, 36 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

New England’s run the ball on 41.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Philadelphia has a rush percentage of 46.6 percent. The Patriots have produced 92.9 rush yards/game and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Eagles are averaging 127.3 rush yards per game and have 10 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Eagles ought to hold an advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has generated 4.2 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 3.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Patriots have recorded 3.3 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.7 to opponents.

The Pats offense has averaged 286.9 yards through the air overall and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Eagles have produced 231.6 pass yards per contest and have 15 total pass scores.

Defensively, New England should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 99.1 yards and pass for 174 yards per game. The Philadelphia D has allowed 256.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 87.3 yards per game on the ground. The Pats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 1.70 to opposing QBs, while the Eagles have allowed a 6.34 ANY/A.

Offensively, Brady is up to 2,277 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 66 percent of his 319 attempts with 12 scores through the air and five interceptions. He’s got a 6.65 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.00 over the last two outings.

As a group, Julian Edelman, James White and Mohamed Sanu have combined to account for 431 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

Carson Wentz has completed 173-of-279 passes for 1,888 yards, 14 TDs and four INTs for Philadelphia. His ANY/A sits at 6.42 for the season and 6.00 over his past two outings.

We’re expecting the Eagles to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Zach Ertz (507 receiving yards, two TDs this season) has stepped up lately, but Jordan Howard (429 rush yards, five rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Miles Sanders (262 rush yards, 261 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have been focal points in the Philadelphia offense.

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Patriots, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The O/U for New England’s previous game was set at 44.5. The over cashed in the team’s 37-20 loss to Baltimore.
  • As a team, New England has produced 2.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.5 over its last two.
  • Philadelphia has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.8 over its last two.
  • The Philadelphia offense has lost nine fumbles this season while New England has lost four.
  • Over its last three matchups, New England is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Philadelphia’s previous game going into it was 40.5. The under cashed in the team’s 22-14 victory over Chicago.
  • Over its last three matchups, Philadelphia is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Patriots offense has registered four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Eagles have accounted for five such plays.
  • The New England defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Philadelphia has given up eight such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced three rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The New England offense has recorded 17 running plays of 10+ yards while Philadelphia has accounted for 29 such plays.
  • The Patriots defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Eagles have given up four such runs.
  • The New England defense has 32 sacks on the year while Philadelphia has just 24.