Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons – Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Falcons (-7) are ready to welcome the Nevada Wolf Pack to Air Force. ESNN is scheduled to broadcast the action and this MWC matchup kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Air Force Falcons

In this Saturday Mountain West matchup, Air Force is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Wolf Pack are also receiving +210 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -270. If one team gets out in front in the early stages, it will likely produce a decent live betting opportunity.

The opening line was originally set at -8 and the sharp action has been siding with the Wolf Pack.

The Wolf Pack are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.0 unit so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-1.

The Falcons are down 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 2-0.

The Wolf Pack have gone 2-2 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any MWC competition yet. The Falcons are 1-2 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play.

When these two squads met last year, Air Force knocked off Nevada by a field goal 45-42.

The Wolf Pack lost to Toledo 63-44 in a thumping where their defense allowed the Rockets to eat up the clock by rushing for 230 yards on 46 attempts, including two rush TDs. Mitchell Guadagni had a good day for the Rockets in that one with 131 rushing yards and both touchdowns on 15 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Ty Gangi completed 29-of-50 passes for 320 yards, along with a score and a pick. Toa Taua (170 rushing yards on 15 attempts, three TDs) and Kelton Moore (74 yards on nine carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack while Kaleb Fossum (14 receptions, 150 yards) and Daiyan Henley (four catches, 62 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.

Air Force just fell 42-32 to Utah State. The defense allowed the Aggies to pass for 356 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 133 yards and four scores. Ron’Quavion Tarver put up a solid showing in the win, posting 128 yards on nine catches for Utah State. For Air Force, Isaiah Sanders completed nine-of-17 passes for 125 yards. Sanders (58 yards on 26 rush attempts, one TD) and Kadin Remsberg (94 yards on 17 carries, one TD) handled the running game as Marcus Bennett (five receptions, 74 yards) and Ronald Cleveland (four catches, 43 yards) led all Air Force pass-catchers in the loss.

Nevada has run the ball on 44.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Air Force has an overall rush percentage of 83.9 percent. The Wolf Pack have produced 167.0 rush yards/game and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are averaging 288.3 rush yards per game and have nine total rushing TDs.

The Wolf Pack offensive scheme has averaged 289.3 yards through the air overall and has eight passing TDs so far. The Falcons have put up 113.7 pass yards per contest and have just one pass scores.

Nevada has let opponents run for an average of 154.0 yards and pass for 300.0 yards per game. The Air Force D has allowed 290.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 72.3 yards per game on the ground. The Wolf Pack are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.45 to opponents, while the Falcons have allowed an ugly 8.92 ANY/A.

Offensively, Gangi has put up 878 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 67-of-115 attempts with five passing scores and four interceptions. Gangi has a 6.59 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.45 over the last two games.

Toa Taua (250 rushing yards, three rush TDs this season), Kaleb Fossum (345 receiving yards) and McLane Mannix (273 receiving yards, three TDs) have each played significant roles of late.

In the host locker room, Isaiah Sanders has managed to complete 9-of-17 passes for 125 yards, zero TDs and zero INTs. Sanders’ ANY/A stands at 6.11 for the year and 7.61 across his past two games.

As a trio, Marcus Bennett, Ronald Cleveland and Kadin Remsberg have combined for 379 yards from scrimmage over the last couple of outings.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons Free Pick

SU Winner: Air Force, ATS Winner: Air Force

Team Betting Trends

  • Nevada was favored by 12 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 67.5. The over cashed and Nevada did not cover in the 63-44 loss to Toledo.
  • Nevada, as a team, has rushed for 6.4 yards per carry over its past two contests.
  • Air Force has averaged 3.7 YPC over its last two.
  • Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
  • In its last three games, Nevada is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Air Force was favored by 10 points in its last match and the O/U was set at 60.5. The over cashed and Air Force failed to cover in the 42-32 defeat to Utah State.
  • The Wolf Pack offense has created four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Falcons have accounted for one such play.
  • The Nevada defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Air Force has given up four such plays.
  • The Nevada offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Air Force has created one such runs.
  • The Wolf Pack defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Falcons have given up two such runs.
  • The Nevada D has 13 sacks on the year while Air Force has just four.