NCAA Football Free Pick – Toledo Rockets vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

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The Toledo Rockets (+8) are flying west to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs at Bulldog Stadium. The matchup is scheduled to start at 10:30 p.m. ET and interested parties can tune in to the action on ESPNU.

Betting Preview: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Toledo Rockets

This Saturday game showcases the Rockets as a noticeable underdogs and they’re currently receiving 8 points. The Rockets are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -330. If one team can create a bunch of points in the early stages, it’ll probably create a reasonable live betting opportunity.

The line initially opened at -10 but the early action has leaned in favor of the Rockets.

The Rockets have gained 0.0 units so far in 2018 and are 2-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 2-0.

The Bulldogs have lost 0.1 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 0-2.

The Rockets have gone 2-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bulldogs are also 2-1 SU.

The Rockets hope to make it two in a row 63-44 victory over Nevada last week where Mitchell Guadagni completed 15-of-24 passes for 211 yards and four touchdowns. Guadagni (131 yards on 15 rush attempts, two TDs) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Shakif Seymour (57 yards on 12 carries). Art Thompkins (five receptions, 51 yards) and Cody Thompson (four catches, 57 yards, three TDs) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Fresno State takes the field this week following a 38-14 win over UCLA. Marcus McMaryion completed 22-of-33 passes for 270 yards and one touchdown. Jordan Mims (85 rushing yards on 21 attempts) and Josh Hokit (21 yards on 12 carries) mounted the running game as KeeSean Johnson (eight receptions, 85 yards) and Jamire Jordan (three catches, 53 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Toledo has run the ball on 61.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Fresno State has an overall rush percentage of 55.6 percent. The Rockets have run for 185.0 yards per game and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are averaging 158.7 rush yards per game and have 11 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Bulldogs ought to have the more disruptive lines up front, as their offensive line has given up only two sacks while the D-line has registered three sacks. The Rockets O-line has given up nine sacks and their defense has forced only five sacks.

The Rockets offensive scheme has averaged 280.7 yards in the air overall and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Bulldogs have recorded 243.0 pass yards per game and have four total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Toledo has allowed 194.3 rush yards and 233.0 pass yards per game. The Fresno State D has given up 177.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 117.7 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 2.83 to opposing QBs, while the Rockets have given up a 4.69 ANY/A.

Offensively, Guadagni has amassed 476 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 26-of-40 attempts with seven scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He’s got a sparkling 13.98 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.00 over the last two outings.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from Toledo in this one. Diontae Johnson (127 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns on the year), Mitchell Guadagni (178 rush yards, two rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) and Art Thompkins (48 rush yards, 74 receiving yards) have each played key roles lately.

In the other locker room, Marcus McMaryion has completed 41-of-59 passes for 477 yards, one TD and zero INTs. McMaryion’s ANY/A stands at 7.90 for the season and 7.29 over his past two games.

Similar to the Rockets, expect a balanced attack offensively from Fresno State this Saturday. As a trio, Jordan Mims, KeeSean Johnson and Jared Rice have combined to account for 457 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns the last two outings.

Toledo Rockets at Fresno State Bulldogs Free Pick

SU Winner: Fresno State, ATS Winner: Fresno State

Betting Trends

  • Toledo was favored by 12 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 67.5. The over cashed and Toledo covered in the 63-44 victory over Nevada.
  • Toledo, as a team, has rushed for 4.2 yards per carry over its last two matchups.
  • Fresno State has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last two.
  • The Fresno State offense has lost two fumbles this season while Toledo has lost one.
  • Fresno State was getting 3 points in its last outing and the O/U was 52.5. The under cashed and Fresno State covered in that 38-14 victory over UCLA.
  • The Rockets offense has produced two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for three such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards. The Toledo defense has given up nine pass plays of 30+ yards while Fresno State has permitted two such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced three rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Toledo offense has recorded 25 running plays of 10+ yards while Fresno State has accounted for 11 such plays.
  • The Rockets defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have given up zero such runs.
  • The Toledo defense has sacked opposing QBs five times this season. Fresno State has registered three sacks.