NCAA Football Free Pick – Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners

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The Oklahoma State Cowboys (+18) aren’t traveling far to battle their in-conference foe No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. This critical daytime game will get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ABC.

Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State is a big road underdog in this Big 12 game and is currently getting 18 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to lay down $1,500 to win $100 back on the Sooners (-1500). The Cowboys are getting +810 moneyline odds. Some good live betting opportunities could exist during this showdown, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) pretty highly at 76 points.

Betting odds have swayed a bit from where they originally opened. The opening line was -18 and the game’s O/U was initially set at 75.5.

The underwhelming Cowboys have lost 14.4 units so far in 2018 and are 4-5 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-4.

The Sooners have gained 1.0 unit this season. The team is 4-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-2.

The Cowboys have gone 5-4 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Sooners are 8-1 SU overall and are also 5-1 SU in conference play.

The Cowboys fell to Baylor 35-31 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Bears to eat up the clock by running for 244 yards on 39 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Jalen Hurd had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 96 yards and a score on seven catches. On the offensive side, Taylor Cornelius completed 24 passes for 287 yards and one touchdown. Justice Hill (119 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Cornelius (19 yards on 12 carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack. Tylan Wallace (eight receptions, 122 yards, one TD) and Tyron Johnson (eight catches, 81 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Oklahoma just earned a 51-46 win over Texas Tech. The team’s defense let the Red Raiders pass for 366 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 107 yards and two scores. Antoine Wesley had a productive outing in the loss, posting 199 yards on 12 catches for Texas Tech. For Oklahoma, Kyler Murray completed 20-of-35 passes for 360 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Trey Sermon (206 rushing yards on 26 attempts, three TDs) and the signal-caller Murray (100 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the running game while Marquise Brown (five receptions, 76 yards) and CeeDee Lamb (four catches, 51 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Oklahoma State has run the ball on 54.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Oklahoma has a rush percentage of 57.8 percent. The Cowboys have produced 200.1 rush yards per game (including 171.7 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 21 scores on the ground this year. The Sooners are logging 246.8 rush yards per game (256.0 in conference) and have 26 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Sooners could have an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 6.7 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.6 YPC to opponents. The Cowboys have tallied 4.8 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents.

The Cowboys offensive scheme has averaged 297.2 yards through the air overall (279.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has 21 passing scores so far. The Sooners have recorded 316.4 pass yards per game (341 in the Big 12) and have 32 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Oklahoma State has allowed 151.2 rush yards and 245.1 pass yards per game. The Oklahoma defense has allowed 247.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 144.1 yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.30 to opponents, while the Sooners have allowed a 6.88 ANY/A.

Offensively, Cornelius has amassed 2,301 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 59 percent of his 268 attempts with 17 passing scores and eight interceptions. He has a 7.31 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.74 over the last two outings.

The Cowboys will probably try to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to receiver Tylan Wallace (840 receiving yards and five touchdowns), Justice Hill (803 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Chuba Hubbard (235 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been big focal points in the Oklahoma State offensive scheme.

Kyler Murray has completed 135-of-194 passes for 2,337 yards, 28 TDs and five INTs for Oklahoma. His ANY/A stands at 12.85 for the season and 12.33 over his past two outings.

The Sooners will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Trey Sermon (118 receiving yards), CeeDee Lamb (565 receiving yards and seven receiving TDs) and Kyler Murray (528 rush yards, six rush TDs) have gotten plenty of action recently.

When these two teams met last year, Oklahoma earned the win 62-52.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Oklahoma, ATS Winner: Oklahoma, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The O/U for Oklahoma State’s last game was 68.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-31 defeat to Baylor.
  • As a team, Oklahoma State has rushed for 4.1 yards per attempt across its last three outings and 4.0 over its last two.
  • Oklahoma has averaged 7.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 7.8 over its past two.
  • The Oklahoma offense has lost three fumbles this season while Oklahoma State has lost five.
  • In its last three games, Oklahoma State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Oklahoma’s last game going into it was 77.5. The over cashed in the 51-46 victory over Texas Tech.
  • In its last three contests, Oklahoma is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Cowboys offense has tallied 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Sooners have put up 16 such plays.
  • The Oklahoma State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Oklahoma has given up nine such plays.
  • The Oklahoma State offense has created 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Oklahoma has created 25 such runs.
  • The Cowboys defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Sooners have given up six such runs.
  • The Oklahoma State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 33 times this season. Oklahoma has produced just 20 sacks.