NCAA Football Free Pick – Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies

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A couple of schools that prefer to run the football, Aggies of Texas A&M (-5) are set to host the No. 13 Kentucky Wildcats at Kyle Field. This important conference matchup is scheduled to get going at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kentucky Wildcats

The Wildcats head into this Saturday SEC game as the dog here and are currently being given 5 points. The Wildcats are also receiving +180 moneyline odds while the Aggies are -220. If one team catches a lucky break early it would result in a worthwhile betting scenario in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 53 points.

The line originally opened at -7 and the game’s O/U was initially set at 54, so it seems that sharp bettors tend to be siding with both the Wildcats and the under.

The profitable Wildcats have recorded 9.3 units so far in 2018 and are 3-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 1-3.

The Aggies have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-1 ATS and own an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Wildcats have gone 5-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against conference opponents. The Aggies are 3-2 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.

These two SEC adversaries did not get a chance to face each other last year.

The Wildcats are hoping to remain unbeaten following a 24-10 win over South Carolina last week. Terry Wilson completed 13 passes for just 132 yards and one interception. Benny Snell (99 rushing yards on 28 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Wilson (59 yards on nine carries, one TD) led the ground attack. Lynn Bowden (four receptions, 18 yards) and C.J. Conrad (three catches, 31 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Texas A&M just picked up a 24-17 win over Arkansas. Kellen Mond completed 17-of-26 passes for 201 yards and two interceptions. Trayveon Williams (152 rushing yards on 29 attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Mond (14 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running attack as Camron Buckley (five receptions, 72 yards) and Hezekiah Jones (four catches, 33 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Kentucky has run the ball on 67.1 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 72.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Texas A&M has an overall run percentage of 55.2 percent, and has rushed the ball 51.4 percent of the time when playing SEC opponents. The Wildcats have produced 254.2 rush yards per game (including 242.3 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 16 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Aggies are logging 232.2 rushing yards per game (153.0 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

If 2018 results are any indication, then it’s looking like the Wildcats ought to hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure, as their offensive line has yielded only 31 sacks while the D-line registered 30 sacks. The Aggies, on the other hand, have allowed 29 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 43 occasions.

The Wildcats offense has averaged 153.0 yards through the air overall (118.0 per game against conference opposition) and has five passing scores so far. The Aggies have recorded 279.6 pass yards per outing (232 in the SEC) and have eight total pass TDs.

Defensively, Kentucky appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 110.4 yards and throw for 177.4 yards per game. The Texas A&M D has allowed 272.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 80.6 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.26 to opponents, while the Aggies have given up a staggering 8.78 ANY/A.

Mond has completed 73-of-115 passes for 1,025 yards, six TDs and two INTs for Texas A&M. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.09 for the year and 2.72 across his last two outings. In the other locker room, Wilson is up to 524 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 54-of-79 attempts with two passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Wilson’s got a 4.67 ANY/A for the year, though that number sits at 2.24 over the last two outings.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Texas A&M Aggies Free Pick

SU Winner: Texas A&M, ATS Winner: Texas A&M, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • Kentucky has rushed for 4.91911764705882 yards per attempt over its last three games and 4.6 over its last two.
  • Texas A&M has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.1 over its last two.
  • Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
  • The Wildcats offense has created two pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Aggies have accounted for one such play.
  • The Kentucky defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Texas A&M has given up 10 such plays.
  • The Kentucky offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Texas A&M has created eight such runs.
  • The Wildcats defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aggies have given up five such runs.
  • The Kentucky defense has sacked opposing QBs 12 times this year. Texas A&M has produced 10 sacks.