NCAA Football Free Pick – Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

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Two teams that like to focus on their running games, Head Coach Tom Allen and the Indiana Hoosiers (+25) are set to face off against the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. FOX is scheduled to televise the action and this vital conference game gets underway at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Ohio State is heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 25 points to Indiana. If the Buckeyes get behind early it will result in a decent betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 62.5 points.

This game’s line opened at -26. The over/under has not changed after it was set initially at 62.5.

Each team has been profitable this year as the Hoosiers have gained 3.0 units while the Buckeyes are up 2.0 units.

The Hoosiers have gone 4-1 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU overall and 2-0 SU in conference play.

When these two schools faced one another last year, Ohio State knocked off Indiana by four touchdowns 49-21.

The Hoosiers are coming off a 24-17 win over Rutgers last week. Peyton Ramsey completed 27-of-40 passes for 288 yards, along with one TD and an interception. Stevie Scott (58 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Ramsey (51 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the ground attack. J-Shun Harris II (seven receptions, 54 yards, one TD) and Ty Fryfogle (five catches, 70 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Ohio State enters this one after just earning a 27-26 win over Penn State. The defense allowed the Nittany Lions to run for 206 yards on 44 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Trace McSorley had a productive outing in the defeat, recording 175 rushing yards on 25 attempts for Penn State. For Ohio State, Dwayne Haskins completed 22-of-39 passes for 270 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. J.K. Dobbins (57 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and Mike Weber (51 yards on nine carries) handled the running game while Parris Campbell (seven receptions, 60 yards) and K.J. Hill (six catches, 59 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

When breaking down offensive play-calling, each of these squads has a similar (54-46) run-pass ratio on the season. The Hoosiers have produced 179.4 rush yards per game (including 96.0 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Buckeyes are logging 210.4 rushing yards per game (172.0 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.

If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Buckeyes could have an edge when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has generated 5.0 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Hoosiers have ran for 4.3 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.4 to opponents.

The Hoosiers offense has logged 232.8 yards per game in the air overall (280.0 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Buckeyes have produced an astonishing 346.6 pass yards per outing (312 in the Big 10) and have 20 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Indiana seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 158.2 yards and pass for 163.6 yards per game. The Ohio State D has allowed 202.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 154.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Hoosiers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.24 to opponents, while the Buckeyes have allowed a 4.93 ANY/A.

Haskins has been more effective than Ramsey lately. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 10.07 for the year and 10.55 across his last two games while Ramsey’s ANY/A is 6.24 and 5.00 over the last two outings.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Free Pick

SU Winner: Ohio State, ATS Winner: Indiana, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Ohio State defense has produced more than twice as many sacks as Indiana this season (19 to nine).
  • Ohio State has lost one fumble in 2018 while the Indiana offense has lost two.
  • The Hoosiers offense has created one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Buckeyes have put up seven such plays.
  • The Indiana defense has allowed zero pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Ohio State has given up four such plays.
  • The Indiana offense has created five rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Ohio State has created seven such runs.
  • Both teams have allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Hoosiers have given up 24 running plays of 10+ yards while the Buckeyes have given up 25 such plays.
  • Ohio State was getting 4 points in its last match and the Over/Under was set at 69.5. The under cashed and Ohio State covered in the team’s 27-26 victory over Penn State.
  • In its last three matchups, Ohio State is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three games, Indiana is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Indiana was getting 15 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 51.5. The under cashed and Indiana covered in the 24-17 win over Rutgers.
  • Indiana has averaged 3.78813559322034 yards per carry over its past three games and 2.6 over its last two.
  • Ohio State has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.6 over its last two.