NCAA Football Free Pick – Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The No. 13 Tigers of LSU (+7) are ready to welcome their conference rival Georgia Bulldogs (-7) to Tiger Stadium. CBS will broadcast the action and this critical afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Georgia Bulldogs at LSU Tigers

LSU is a live dog and is currently getting 7 points in this SEC game. In order to take the favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to wager $300 to win $100 back on the Bulldogs (-300). The Tigers are getting +220 moneyline odds. If one squad can catch a lucky break early, it would likely result in a worthwhile live betting opportunity.

Each of these teams has rewarded gamblers this season as the Bulldogs have recorded 2.0 units while the Tigers are ahead 5.3 units.

The Bulldogs are 6-0 straight up (SU), including 4-0 SU against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 5-1 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.

The Dawgs are hoping to remain unbeaten following a 41-13 win over Vanderbilt last week. the Bulldogs completed 21-of-31 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Jake Fromm went 17-for-23 for 276 yards and three touchdowns while Justin Fields completed three-of-six for 53 yards. James Cook (56 yards on seven rush attempts) and D’Andre Swift (50 yards on seven carries) led the ground attack while Riley Ridley (five receptions, 57 yards, one TD) and Mecole Hardman (four catches, 45 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.

A week ago, Florida got the victory against this LSU crew by a score of 27-19. Joe Burrow completed 19-of-34 passes for 191 yards and two interceptions. Nick Brossette (95 rushing yards on 15 attempts, two TDs) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (55 yards on 13 carries) spearheaded the running game while Derrick Dillon (four receptions, 42 yards) and Jonathan Giles (three catches, 12 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Looking at offensive play-calling, each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Georgia’s run the ball on 62.7 percent of its offensive possessions while LSU has a rush percentage of 60.8. The Bulldogs have produced 245.2 rush yards per game (including 231.5 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 15 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Tigers are putting up 190.0 rush yards per game (194.0 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.

The Dawgs offensive scheme has averaged 240.0 yards through the air overall (248.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Tigers have produced 202.3 pass yards per outing (244 against SEC competition) and have six total pass scores.

Georgia should hold an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 113.2 yards and pass for 170.0 yards per game. The LSU defense has allowed 221.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Dawgs have given up an ANY/A of 4.47 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers are yielding an ANY/A of 4.38.

Offensively, Fromm has put up 1,015 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 67-of-92 attempts with 12 scores through the air and only two interceptions. He has a sparkling 11.88 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 10.54 over the last two games.

The Bulldogs have tried to maintain the pace by feeding their running backs early and often. The tandem of D’Andre Swift (240 rush yards, two rush TDs, 87 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Elijah Holyfield (354 rush yards, three rush TDs) have really been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Georgia.

Joe Burrow has managed to complete 71-of-140 passes for 922 yards, three TDs and two INTs for LSU. His ANY/A stands at 5.48 for the season and 6.48 across his last two outings.

The Tigers also prefer to keep their running backs involved. Along with Justin Jefferson (245 receiving yards), Nick Brossette (504 rush yards, seven rush TDs, 51 receiving yards) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (263 rush yards, four rush TDs) have gotten plenty of touches lately.

These two SEC foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2017.

Georgia Bulldogs at LSU Tigers Free Pick

SU Winner: Georgia, ATS Winner: Georgia

Team Betting Notes

  • The Bulldogs offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have accounted for four such plays.
  • The Georgia defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while LSU has given up three such plays.
  • The Georgia offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while LSU has created seven such runs.
  • The Bulldogs defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Tigers have given up four such runs.
  • The LSU defensive unit has recorded more than double the sack total of Georgia this year (13 versus six).
  • Georgia has averaged 5.28225806451613 yards per rush attempt over its past three contests and 5.6 over its last two.
  • LSU has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.1 over its past two.