NCAA Football Free Pick: Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs

betdsiCollege Football, Football

A matchup that features a pair of squads ranked in the Top 10 nationally, the No. 9 Florida Gators are receiving seven points from oddsmakers as they face off against their SEC foe No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs at EverBank Field. Fans are able to catch the action live on CBS and this crucial daytime game is scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs

This Saturday SEC game shows the Gators as the underdogs and they’re currently getting 7 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to lay down $300 to win $100 back on the Dawgs (-300). The Gators are getting +220 moneyline odds. If one team can get out in front early it’ll create a reasonable betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 51.5 points.

Betting odds have swayed some from where they were originally posted. The line opened at 6.5 while the game’s total was initially set at 52.

The Gators are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.8 units so far in 2018. The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 3-3.

The Bulldogs have lost 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-3-1 ATS and also have an even O/U record of 3-3.

The Gators have gone 6-1 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are 6-1 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.

The Gators continue riding high after a 37-27 victory over Vanderbilt on October 13 where Feleipe Franks completed 19-of-29 passes for 284 yards, two scores and one interception. Lamical Perine (121 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) and Jordan Scarlett (113 yards on 16 carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack while Kadarius Toney (four receptions, nine yards) and Perine (four catches, 93 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Two weeks ago, LSU knocked off this Georgia team by a score of 36-16. Jake Fromm completed 16-of-34 passes for 209 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. D’Andre Swift (72 yards on 12 rush attempts) and Elijah Holyfield (56 yards on seven carries, one TD) handled the running game while Jeremiah Holloman (three receptions, 26 yards) and Riley Ridley (three catches, 75 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the loss.

When looking at offensive play-calling, each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Florida’s run the ball on 59.0 percent of its offensive possessions while Georgia has a rush percentage of 60.5. The Gators have produced 197.3 rush yards/game (including 190.8 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Dawgs are logging 226.3 rushing yards per game (207.8 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it seems like the Gators could own the advantage along both the offensive and defensive fronts, as their offensive line has allowed only 37 sacks while the D-line logged 23 sacks. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have allowed 22 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 34 times.

The Gators offense has tallied 211.0 yards per game through the air overall (223.4 per game versus conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Dawgs have put up 235.6 pass yards per contest (240 in the SEC) and have 15 total pass TDs.

Florida has allowed opponents to run for an average of 163.1 yards and throw for 160.1 yards per game. The Georgia defense has allowed 174.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 136.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.52 to opposing QBs, while the Dawgs have given up a 4.59 ANY/A.

Fromm has connected on 82-of-125 passes for 1,133 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Fromm’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.01 for the year and 7.41 across his past two outings. In the other huddle, Franks is up to 1,245 passing yards this year, and has connected on 91-of-155 attempts with 14 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. Franks has a 7.91 ANY/A, including 6.90 over the last two games.

When these two teams met last year, Georgia knocked Florida off by five touchdowns 42-7.

Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs Free Pick

SU Winner: Florida, ATS Winner: Florida, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends,

  • The O/U for Florida’s last game was set at 51. The over cashed in the team’s 37-27 win over Vanderbilt.
  • Florida, as a team, has produced 4.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Georgia has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.2 over its past two.
  • The Georgia offense has lost three fumbles this season while Florida has lost four.
  • In its last three matchups, Florida is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Georgia’s previous matchup going into it was 50. The over cashed in the 36-16 defeat to LSU.
  • In its last three games, Georgia is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Gators offense has registered four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for six such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards. The Florida defense has given up five pass plays of 30+ yards while Georgia has given up seven such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Florida offense has recorded 41 running plays of 10+ yards while Georgia has accounted for 52 such plays.
  • The Gators defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have given up three such runs.
  • The Florida defense has 21 sacks on the year while Georgia has just nine.