NCAA Football Free Pick – Colorado State Rams vs. San Jose State Spartans

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Colorado State Rams (-3) are traveling west to visit their in-conference counterpart San Jose State Spartans at CEFCU Stadium. This showdown will kick off pretty late for those on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and CBS Sports Network will televise the action.

Betting Preview: San Jose State Spartans vs. Colorado State Rams

In this Saturday Mountain West game, Colorado State is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Rams are also receiving -155 moneyline odds while the Spartans are +135. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 64 points. There will likely be some good live betting opportunities for the contest.

The disappointing Rams are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 12.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 1-4.

The Spartans have lost 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-2.

The Rams have gone 1-4 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against MWC opponents. The Spartans are 0-4 SU overall and are also 0-1 SU in conference play.

The Rams fell to Illinois State 35-19 in a contest where the Rams completed 24-of-44 passes for 257 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. K.J. Carta-Samuels went 15-for-27 for 142 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while Collin Hill completed nine-of-17 for 115 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Izzy Matthews (71 yards on 14 rushes) and Marvin Kinsey Jr. (51 yards on nine carries) led the ground attack in the loss while Olabisi Johnson (seven receptions, 107 yards, one TD) and Kinsey Jr. (four catches, 63 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

Back on September 29, Hawaii got the victory against this San Jose State team by a score of 44-41. The Spartans defensive unit allowed the Rainbow Warriors to pass for 341 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 134 yards. John Ursua had a good showing for Hawaii, recording 148 yards and three touchdowns on 13 catches. For San Jose State, Josh Love completed 28-of-49 passes for 451 yards and three touchdowns. Malike Roberson (47 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Love (-27 yards on 10 carries) spearheaded the ground attack in the defeat as Oliver (eight receptions, 158 yards, one TD) and Tre Walker (three catches, 56 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

In terms of offensive play-calling, each team has a strikingly similar (58-42 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Rams have produced 92.6 rush yards per game and have one score via handoffs this year. The Spartans are logging 54.5 rushing yards per game and have five total rush TDs.

The Rams offensive scheme has tallied 320.8 yards per contest through the air overall and has 12 passing TD so far. The Spartans have put up 295.8 pass yards per game and have seven total pass scores.

Defensively, Colorado State appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 249.0 yards and pass for 256.8 yards per game. The San Jose State defense has allowed 379.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 133.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Spartans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.75 to opposing QBs, while the Rams have given up an ugly 10.38 ANY/A.

Love has completed 42-of-78 passes for 560 yards, four TDs and one INT for San Jose State. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 6.51 for the year and 7.20 across his past two outings. In the other huddle, Carta-Samuels has put up 1,244 passing yards this season, and has connected on 99-of-157 attempts with 10 passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Carta-Samuels has a 7.73 ANY/A for the year, although that number sits at 5.12 over the past two games.

When these two teams met a year ago, Colorado State knocked off San Jose State by four touchdowns 42-14.

Colorado State Rams at San Jose State Spartans Free Prediction

SU Winner: San Jose State, ATS Winner: San Jose State, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • Colorado State was favored by 5 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 58.5. The under cashed and Colorado State did not cover in the 35-19 defeat to Illinois State.
  • As a team, Colorado State has averaged 2.54166666666667 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.8 over its last two.
  • San Jose State has averaged 0.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 1.0 over its last two.
  • San Jose State has lost one fumble this season while Colorado State has lost four.
  • In its last three matches, Colorado State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • San Jose State was getting 9 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 61.5. The over cashed and San Jose State covered in that 44-41 defeat to Hawaii.
  • Over its last three contests, San Jose State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Rams offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Spartans have accounted for seven such plays.
  • The Colorado State defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while San Jose State has given up four such plays.
  • The Colorado State offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while San Jose State has created two such runs.
  • The Rams defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Spartans have given up four such runs.
  • The San Jose State defense has registered six sacks on the year while Colorado State has two.