NCAA Football Free Betting Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

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The Vanderbilt Commodores and Arkansas Razorbacks are ready to face off on the turf at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. This daytime game is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and SEC Network will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

In this Saturday Southeastern game, Arkansas has been projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 1 point. The Commodores are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Razorbacks are -105. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 52.5 points, and if one squad can create a bunch of points early, it’ll likely create a decent live betting opportunity.

Sharp bettors are hammering the over. The game’s total initially opened at 51.5.

The Commodores have lost 2.0 units so far and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-6.

The Razorbacks have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 10.6 units. The team is 5-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-5.

The Commodores have gone 3-5 straight up (SU), including 0-4 SU against conference opponents. The Razorbacks are 2-6 SU overall and are also 0-4 SU in conference play.

The Commodores fell to Kentucky 14-7 in a game where Kyle Shurmur completed 15-of-23 passes for 216 yards and one touchdown. Jamauri Wakefield (74 yards on 19 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the loss. Kalija Lipscomb (five receptions, 28 yards) and Jared Pinkney (three catches, 44 yards) shared the receiving duties.

The Arkansas Razorbacks enter this one following a 23-0 win over Tulsa. The defensive unit let the Golden Hurricane rush for 133 yards on 40 attempts. Shamari Brooks had a good showing in the defeat, recording 91 rushing yards on 20 attempts for Tulsa. For Arkansas, Connor Noland completed 10-of-16 passes for 124 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Rakeem Boyd did it all in the win. In addition to 99 yards on 22 rush attempts, Boyd also reeled in three catches for 14 yards.

Vanderbilt has run the ball on 50.0 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 47.1 percent across possessions in conference play. Arkansas has a run percentage of 57.4 percent, and has rushed the ball 54.2 percent of the time against SEC opponents. The Commodores have run for 141.1 yards/game (including 101.3 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 10 scores via handoffs this year. The Razorbacks are totaling 172.0 rushing yards per game (168.8 in conference) and have nine total rush TDs.

The Commodores offensive scheme has logged 235.4 yards per game in the air overall (205.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Razorbacks have recorded 197.8 pass yards per outing (186 against SEC competition) and have 13 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Vanderbilt should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 195.4 rush yards and 212.8 pass yards per game. The Arkansas defense has allowed 267.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.5 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Commodores have given up an ANY/A of 6.82 to opposing QBs, while the Razorbacks are allowing an ANY/A of 7.23.

Noland has completed 14-of-23 passes for 149 yards, one TD and two INTs for Arkansas. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at a minuscule 1.86 for the year and 6.19 over his past two games. In the other locker room, Shurmur is up to 1,616 passing yards this season, and has connected on 128-of-210 attempts with 10 passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Shurmur has a 7.10 ANY/A, including 6.42 over the last two games.

These two SEC foes did not get a chance to play each other last year.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Free Prediction

SU Winner: Arkansas, ATS Winner: Arkansas, O/U: Over

Betting Trends,

  • As a team, Vanderbilt has averaged 3.8 yards per carry across its last three contests and 3.3 over its last two.
  • Arkansas has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.9 over its last two.
  • Arkansas has lost four fumbles this season while Vanderbilt has lost seven.
  • Vanderbilt has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a four-point victory over Tennessee State on September 29th representing the only win over that stretch.
  • Each team has produced five pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Commodores have have made eight pass plays of 30+ yards while the Razorbacks have accounted for 14 such plays.
  • The Vanderbilt defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Arkansas has given up 10 such plays.
  • The Vanderbilt offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Arkansas has created nine such runs.
  • The Commodores defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Razorbacks have given up seven such runs.
  • The Arkansas defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this year. Vanderbilt has recorded just 13 sacks.