A couple of schools that like to keep it on the ground, Head Coach Matt Luke and the Ole Miss Rebels (+11) are gearing up to pay a visit to their SEC nemesis Texas A&M Aggies (-11) at Kyle Field. CBS owns the TV rights and the game is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Texas A&M Aggies vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss is a significant road underdog in this SEC game and is currently receiving 11 points. The Rebels are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Aggies are -450. Multiple good live betting opportunities should present themselves during the game, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 63 points.
The line originally opened at -12 while the O/U was initially 62, so sharp bettors have been siding with both the Rebels and the over.
The Rebels are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.3 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 6-3.
The Aggies have lost 0.1 units this season. The team is 6-3 ATS and owns an O/U record of 3-5.
The Rebels have gone 5-4 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against conference opponents. The Aggies are 5-4 SU overall and are also 3-3 SU in conference play.
Both teams enter this matchup on two-game losing streaks. The Rebels fell to South Carolina 48-44 in a game where Jordan Ta’amu completed 31-of-46 passes for 379 yards. Scottie Phillips (141 yards on 21 rush attempts, three TDs) and the signal-caller Ta’amu (66 yards on 21 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss. Elijah Moore (11 receptions, 129 yards) and DaMarkus Lodge (seven catches, 34 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Texas A&M just fell 28-24 to Auburn. The defensive secondary allowed the Tigers to air it out for 259 yards and three touchdowns. Darius Slayton put up a good outing in the win, recording 107 yards and a score on eight catches for Auburn. For Texas A&M, Kellen Mond completed 16-of-32 passes for 220 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Mond (31 yards on 18 rush attempts) and Trayveon Williams (107 yards on 17 carries, two TDs) handled the ground game in the defeat while Williams (five receptions, 75 yards, one TD) and Jace Sternberger (three catches, 59 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Ole Miss has run the ball on 50.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas A&M has an overall rush percentage of 53.6 percent. The Rebels have produced 193.8 rush yards per game (including 169.8 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 23 scores via handoffs this year. The Aggies are logging 188.0 rushing yards per game (139.5 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
The Rebels offensive scheme has logged a superb 352.8 yards per contest in the air overall (280.2 per game against conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Aggies have put up 269.9 pass yards per game (249 in the SEC) and have 13 total pass scores.
Ole Miss has allowed opponents to run for an average of 210.0 yards and pass for 289.1 yards per game. The Texas A&M defense has allowed 243.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 79.0 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Rebels have given up an ANY/A of 7.92 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies are yielding an ANY/A of 8.19.
Offensively, Ta’amu is already up to 2,677 passing yards this year, and has completed 66 percent of his 268 attempts with 15 passing scores and five interceptions. He’s got a 9.46 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.63 over the past two outings.
A.J. Brown (765 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns this season), Scottie Phillips (864 rush yards, 12 rush TDs, 85 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Elijah Moore (286 receiving yards, two TDs) have all played significant roles lately.
In the home locker room, Kellen Mond has completed 148-of-246 passes for 2,020 yards, 11 TDs and six INTs. Mond’s ANY/A stands at 6.64 for the season and 3.95 across his last two outings.
We expect the Aggies to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Quartney Davis (324 receiving yards, two TDs this season) has stepped up lately, but Trayveon Williams (905 rush yards, 10 rush TDs, 212 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Jashaun Corbin (219 rush yards, one rush TD) have been key factors in the Aggies’ recent offensive gameplans.
These two schools met last year with the final result being a 31-24 victory for Texas A&M.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Texas A&M Aggies NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Texas A&M, ATS Winner: Texas A&M, O/U: Over
- Ole Miss has produced 4.6 yards per carry across its last three outings and 4.0 over its last two.
- Texas A&M has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.8 over its last two.
- Texas A&M has lost five fumbles this season while Ole Miss has lost three.
- The Rebels offense has created 19 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aggies have put up four such plays.
- The Ole Miss defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Texas A&M has given up 13 such plays.
- The Ole Miss offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Texas A&M has created 11 such runs.
- The Rebels defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aggies have given up seven such runs.
- The Texas A&M defense has created 23 sacks on the year while Ole Miss has 19.