NCAA Football Free Betting Preview: Colorado Buffaloes vs. USC Trojans

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

A matchup between two programs ranked in the Top 22 overall nationally, the No. 22 Trojans of USC (-7) are set to greet their conference nemesis Colorado Buffaloes in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Kickoff for this keygame is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET and fans can witness the action live on FS1.

Betting Preview: USC Trojans vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 7 points in this Pac-12 game. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to spend $300 in order to win $100 back on the Trojans (-300). The Buffaloes are getting +220 moneyline odds. There should be some decent live betting scenarios for this game.

The profitable Buffaloes have gained 4.3 units so far in 2018 and are 4-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 0-4.

The Trojans have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-2.

The Buffaloes have gone 5-0 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Trojans are 3-2 SU overall and are also 2-1 SU in conference play.

The Buffaloes are looking to remain unbeaten following a 28-21 victory over Arizona State last week where Steven Montez completed 24-of-33 passes for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Travon McMillian (136 yards on 30 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the win while Shenault Jr. (13 receptions, 127 yards, two TDs) and K.D. Nixon (five catches, 97 yards) handled the receiving duties.

USC enters this one having just earned a 24-20 win over Arizona two weeks ago. The Trojans allowed the Wildcats to tally 232 yards through the air and 98 more on the ground. Shun Brown had a good showing in the defeat, recording 81 yards on five catches for Arizona. For USC, JT Daniels completed 16-of-24 passes for 197 yards. Aca’Cedric Ware (173 yards on 21 rush attempts, two TDs) and Stephen Carr (80 yards on 14 carries) mounted the ground game in the win while Amon-Ra St. Brown (five receptions, 54 yards) and Josh Falo (three catches, 54 yards) led the receiving corps.

Colorado’s run the ball on 57.9 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 60.8 percent across possessions in conference play. USC has an overall rush percentage of 50.0 percent, and has run the ball 57.2 percent of the time against Pac-12 opponents. The Buffaloes have produced 197.6 rush yards/game (including 187.5 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have 13 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Trojans are averaging 138.8 rushing yards per game (160.0 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it’s looking like the Buffaloes could own an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has produced 4.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Trojans have registered 4.1 yards per carry and allowed 4.5 YPC to opponents.

The Buffaloes offense has logged 293.0 yards/game in the air overall (298.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Trojans have recorded 252.0 pass yards per game (219 in the Pac-12) and have four total pass scores.

Colorado has allowed opponents to run for an average of 154.0 yards and pass for 201.0 yards per game. The USC defense has allowed 218.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 163.2 yards per game on the ground. The Buffaloes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.04 to opponents, while the Trojans have given up a 6.56 ANY/A.

Offensively, Montez has put up 1,183 passing yards on the year, and has completed 93-of-127 attempts with 10 passing scores and only two interceptions. Montez’s got a pristine 9.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 10.35 over the last two games.

Laviska Shenault Jr. Travon McMillian and Tony Brown have combined for 655 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

In the other locker room, JT Daniels has completed 83-of-141 passes for 1,016 yards, one TD and three INTs. Daniels’ ANY/A stands at 5.39 for the season and 8.70 over his past two outings.

We’re expecting the Trojans to control the game’s clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. Backfield mates Aca’Cedric Ware (340 rush yards, three rush TDs), Stephen Carr (199 rush yards, one rush TD), and Vavae Malepeai (76 rush yards, four rush TDs) have brought significant production to the USC offense.

When these two squads faced one another last year, USC won by a couple of touchdowns 38-24.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. USC Trojans Bedding Prediction

SU Winner: USC, ATS Winner: USC

Team Betting Notes

  • Each team has produced eight pass plays of 40 or more yards and 13 pass plays of 30+ yards.
  • The Colorado defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while USC has given up two such plays.
  • The Colorado offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while USC has created six such runs.
  • The Buffaloes defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Trojans have given up 11 such runs.
  • The Colorado defensive unit has 15 sacks on the year while USC has just nine.
  • As a team, Colorado has averaged 4.76388888888889 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.0 over its last two.
  • USC has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.7 over its last two.
  • In its last three contests, USC is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Colorado was favored by 2 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 64. The under cashed and Colorado covered in the 28-21 victory over Arizona State.
  • USC was getting 3 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 62. The under cashed and USC covered in that 24-20 victory over Arizona.