NCAA Football Free Betting Pick – South Alabama Jaguars at Georgia Southern Eagles

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The South Alabama Jaguars and Georgia Southern Eagles are ready to go at it on the grass at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. This daytime game is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN 3 has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars

In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Georgia Southern is labeled as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 14 points. The Jaguars are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Eagles are -735. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 52.5 points. Based on how it’s shaping up, there should be some good live betting opportunities in this game.

The game’s total has swung down after originally being set at 54.5. The opening line of -14 hasn’t changed.

The Jaguars have gained 0.0 units so far and are 2-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-0.

The Eagles have gained 2.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-0 ATS and have an O/U record of 0-3.

The Jaguars have gone 1-4 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Eagles are 3-1 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.

The Jags fell to Appalachian State 52-7 in a thumping where their defense allowed the Mountaineers to eat up the clock by rushing for 348 yards on 46 attempts, including four rush TDs. Jalin Moore had a productive day for the Mountaineers in that one with 123 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Evan Orth completed 20 passes for 225 yards and one interception. Tra Minter (44 yards on nine rush attempts) led the ground attack in the loss while Jamarius Way (seven receptions, 63 yards) and Baker (four catches, 89 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Georgia Southern just got a 28-21 win over Arkansas State. The team’s defensive unit let the Red Wolves pass for 376 yards while rushing for 117 yards. Kirk Merritt was a bright spot in the defeat for Arkansas State, recording 92 yards on 11 catches. As a group, the Eagles collectively completed one-of-three passes for 61 yards and one touchdown. Shai Werts went one-for-three for 61 yards and one touchdown while D.J. Butler was -of- for yards. Werts (113 yards on 22 rush attempts, one TD) and Wesley Fields (98 yards on 10 carries) handled the ground game in the win while Fields (one receptions, 61 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.

South Alabama has run the ball on 53.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia Southern has a rush percentage of 87.9 percent. The Jaguars have produced 120.2 rush yards/game (including 99.5 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have nine touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Eagles are logging 270.3 rush yards per game and have 11 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Eagles ought to have the advantage in terms of RB efficiency, as their backfield has produced 5.3 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 4.4 to opponents. The Jaguars have tallied 3.4 yards per carry while allowing 5.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Jags offense has averaged 215.6 yards in the air overall (245.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has seven passing TDs so far. The Eagles have recorded 76.0 pass yards per outing and have three total pass scores.

South Alabama has allowed opponents to run for an average of 234.4 yards and pass for 267.4 yards per game. The Georgia Southern defense has given up 227.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 163.3 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.25 to opponents, while the Jaguars have given up a 6.51 ANY/A.

Werts has completed 12-of-19 passes for 244 yards, three TDs and zero INTs for Georgia Southern. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 14.95 for the season and 4.06 over his past two games. In the other locker room, Orth is up to 654 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 62-of-97 attempts with three passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Orth’s got a 6.10 ANY/A for the year, though that number is 8.63 over the last two games.

When these two programs met last year, Georgia Southern knocked South Alabama off soundly 52-0.

South Alabama Jaguars at Georgia Southern Eagles Free Prediction

SU Winner: South Alabama, ATS Winner: South Alabama, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The South Alabama defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 11 times this year. Georgia Southern has produced 10 sacks.
  • Georgia Southern has lost two fumbles this season while the South Alabama offense has lost seven.
  • The Jaguars offense has produced four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Eagles have put up three such plays.
  • The South Alabama defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Georgia Southern has given up one such play.
  • The South Alabama offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Georgia Southern has created nine such runs.
  • The Jaguars defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Eagles have given up three such runs.
  • Georgia Southern was getting 3 points in its last game and the O/U was 53. The under cashed and Georgia Southern covered in that 28-21 victory over Arkansas State.
  • Over its last three games, Georgia Southern is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • Over its last three matches, South Alabama is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • South Alabama was favored by 26 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 56. The over cashed and South Alabama failed to cover in the 52-7 loss to Appalachian State.
  • South Alabama, as a team, has averaged 3.12244897959184 yards per carry over its past three outings and 2.7 over its last two.
  • Georgia Southern has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.7 over its past two.