Two schools that prefer to keep it on the ground, Head Coach Chad Lunsford and the Georgia Southern Eagles (-17.5) are set to take on their SBC foe Texas State Bobcats at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium. The matchup is scheduled to get going at 7:30 p.m. ET and ESPNU has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Texas State Bobcats vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
Texas State is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 17.5 points in this Thursday SBC game. The Eagles are also receiving -1450 moneyline odds while the Bobcats are +800. If one side gets out in front early, it will likely generate a solid in-game betting opportunity.
The profitable Eagles have recorded 3.4 units so far and are 5-0 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 1-3.
The Bobcats have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 4.0 units. The team is 1-3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-2.
The Eagles are 4-1 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Bobcats are 1-4 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.
Georgia Southern enters this matchup on a zero-game losing streak while Texas State has won zero in a row. The Eagles are coming off a resounding 48-13 win over South Alabama last week in which Shai Werts completed five passes for just 99 yards and one touchdown. Wesley Fields (81 yards on 13 rush attempts, two TDs) and Monteo Garrett (91 yards on 11 carries) led the running attack while Kennedy III (two receptions, 12 yards) and Darion Anderson (one catch, 58 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
A week ago, Louisiana got the win against this Texas State crew by a score of 42-27. Tyler Vitt completed 28-of-39 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Vitt (92 yards on 17 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Hutch White (11 receptions, 60 yards) and Watts (five catches, 42 yards) led the Texas State pass-catchers in the loss.
Georgia Southern’s run the ball on 87.3 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 89.3 percent across possessions in conference play. Texas State has a rush percentage of 54.5 percent, and has carried the ball 52.3 percent of the time when facing SBC opponents. The Eagles have produced 275.2 rush yards per game (including 321.5 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Bobcats are averaging 136.6 rush yards per game (141.0 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.
Based on the early season results, the Eagles could own the edge when it comes to RB efficiency, as their backfield has logged 5.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.2 YPC to opponents. The Bobcats have registered 3.7 yards per carry and given up 4.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Eagles offense has averaged 80.6 yards through the air overall (80.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has four passing scores so far. The Bobcats have put up 215.6 pass yards per game (258 in the SBC) and have nine total pass TDs.
Georgia Southern has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 156.4 yards and pass for 221.2 yards per game. The Texas State defense has allowed 228.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 168.4 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.87 to opponents, while the Bobcats have given up a 6.84 ANY/A.
Offensively, Werts has put up 302 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 18-of-32 attempts with three scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Werts has a pristine 9.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 16.25 over the last two outings.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from Georgia Southern in this one. Wesley Fields, Shai Werts and Wesley Kennedy III have collectively accounted for 602 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns over the last two outings.
On the other sideline, Tyler Vitt has managed to complete 32-of-46 passes for 326 yards, three TDs and one INT. Vitt’s ANY/A stands at 6.75 for the season and 6.84 over his past two outings.
Look for Vitt to distribute the football early and often in this one. Keenen Brown (222 receiving yards and three receiving TDs this season), Tyler Vitt (five receiving yards, one receiving TD), and Hutch White (128 receiving yards, one TD) have collectively recorded 334 receiving yards and five TDs over the last two games.
These two conference adversaries did not get a chance to play each other in 2017.
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Texas State Bobcats Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Eagles, ATS Winner: Eagles
Team Betting Notes
- Texas State has lost five fumbles this season while Georgia Southern has lost two.
- The Georgia Southern defense has 11 sacks on the year while Texas State has just three.
- Georgia Southern, as a team, has rushed for 5.35555555555556 yards per attempt over its past three contests and 7.0 over its last two.
- Texas State has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.8 over its last two.
- Over its last three matches, Texas State is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Georgia Southern was favored by 12 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 56.5. The over cashed and Georgia Southern covered in the 48-13 win over South Alabama.
- Over its last three matchups, Georgia Southern is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Texas State was getting 3 points in its last matchup and the Over/Under was set at 57.5. The over cashed and Texas State failed to cover in that 42-27 loss to Louisiana.