NCAA Football Free Betting Matchup: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

A couple of teams that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Coach Scott Satterfield and the No. 25 Appalachian State Mountaineers (+21.5) will be taking on their conference counterpart Texas State Bobcats at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium. This afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET and spectators can tune in to the action on ESPN 3.

Betting Preview: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats

Appalachian State is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 21.5 points to Texas State. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 48 points, and if one school can find paydirt early, it will likely create a decent betting scenario in-game.

The Mountaineers have lost 1.5 units so far and are 6-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-3.

The Bobcats have lost 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-3-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-5.

The Mountaineers have gone 6-2 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bobcats are 3-6 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.

The Mountaineers are coming off a resounding 23-7 victory over Coastal Carolina last week. The D did its part in the win, holding the Chanticleers to just 106 passing yards and 72 yards on the ground. Ky’Jon Tyler had a productive day for the Chanticleers in that one with 39 yards on three catches. Offensively, Jacob Huesman completed just nine-of-19 passes for 127 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Darrynton Evans (159 rushing yards on 27 attempts, one TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (103 yards on 19 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while Dominique Heath (four receptions, 55 yards) and Evans (one catch, 12 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Texas State takes the field this week after just getting a 40-31 win over Georgia State. The defense allowed the Panthers to run for 221 yards on 43 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Tra Barnett was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 85 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts for Georgia State. For Texas State, Willie Jones III completed 21-of-26 passes for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Jones III (62 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) and Caleb Twyford (73 yards on eight carries, one TD) handled the ground game in the win while Keenen Brown (six receptions, 63 yards) and Hutch White (four catches, 27 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Appalachian State has run the ball on 63.9 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 66.5 percent across possessions in conference play. Texas State has a rush percentage of 57.4 percent, and has run the ball 54.9 percent of the time when playing SBC opponents. The Mountaineers have rushed for 252.1 yards per game (including 257.4 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 21 scores via handoffs this year. The Bobcats are totaling 146.7 rush yards per game (136.0 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.

Judging by the numbers this season, it appears that the Mountaineers might hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has generated 5.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.4 YPC to opponents. The Bobcats have recorded 3.9 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.5 to opponents.

The Mountaineers offensive scheme has averaged 191.5 yards through the air overall (137.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Bobcats have recorded 196.2 pass yards per contest (218 in the SBC) and have 14 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Appalachian State should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 127.9 yards and pass for 157.3 yards per game. The Texas State defense has allowed 201.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 178.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mountaineers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.64 to opposing QBs, while the Bobcats have given up a 5.49 ANY/A.

Offensively, Huesman has amassed 125 passing yards this year. He’s completed 50 percent of his 22 attempts with one passing scores and two interceptions. Huesman has a 1.67 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 0.92 over the last two outings.

The Mountaineers will probably try to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Corey Sutton (399 yards, five TDs) has been a recent factor in the receiving game, but backfield mates Darrynton Evans (584 rush yards, four rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (297 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been focal points in the offensive gameplans for Appalachian State.

On the other sideline, Willie Jones III has completed 63-of-112 passes for 845 yards, five TDs and two INTs. Jones III’s ANY/A sits at 6.18 for the year and 10.83 over his past two games.

The Bobcats also prefer to keep their running backs featured. In addition to Willie Jones III (zero receiving yards), Jeremiah Haydel (-4 rush yards, 243 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Robert Brown, Jr. (189 rush yards, one rush TD) have seen quite a few touches recently.

When these two programs faced each other last year, Appalachian State won by a touchdown 20-13.

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Texas State Bobcats Bedding Prediction

SU Winner: Texas State, ATS Winner: Texas State, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Over/Under for Appalachian State’s previous game was set at 53. The under cashed in the team’s 23-7 victory over Coastal Carolina.
  • Appalachian State has averaged 5.0 yards per rush attempt across its last three games and 4.6 over its last two.
  • Texas State has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its past two.
  • Texas State has lost seven fumbles this season while Appalachian State has lost three.
  • Over its last three matchups, Appalachian State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Appalachian State has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a 20-point defeat to Georgia Southern on October 25th representing the only loss over that stretch.
  • The Over/Under for Texas State’s last matchup was 52.5. The over cashed in that 40-31 win over Georgia State.
  • In its last three matches, Texas State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Mountaineers offense has registered five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bobcats have accounted for six such plays.
  • The Appalachian State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Texas State has given up five such plays.
  • The Appalachian State offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Texas State has created 12 such runs.
  • Both teams have allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Mountaineers have given up 33 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bobcats have given up 50 such plays.
  • The Appalachian State defensive unit has 15 sacks on the year while Texas State has 11.