Missouri Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide – 10/13/2018 Free Pick

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A couple of teams that prefer running the football, No. 1 Crimson Tide (-28) are gearing up to welcome the Missouri Tigers to Alabama. ESPN will broadcast the action and kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Missouri Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama is the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 28 points to Missouri. Bookmakers have yet to determine where the game’s over/under (O/U) will be placed. If one squad can create a bunch of points in the early stages, it’ll likely result in a nice betting scenario in-game.

The Tigers have lost 0.1 units so far and are 2-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-0.

The Crimson Tide have gained 0.0 units this season. The team is 3-3 ATS and five of its games have gone over the total.

The Tigers have gone 3-2 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against conference opponents. The Crimson Tide are 6-0 SU overall and 3-0 SU in conference play.

These two SEC foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2017.

The Tigers are most-recently reeling from a thin 37-35 loss to South Carolina last weekTheir defense allowed the Gamecocks to eat up the clock by rushing for 128 yards on 47 attempts. Deebo Samuel had a productive day for the Gamecocks in that one with 88 yards and a score on four catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Drew Lock completed only 17-of-36 passes for 204 yards and two interceptions. Damarea Crockett (154 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) and Larry Rountree III (90 yards on 13 carries, two TDs) mounted the ground attack while Albert Okwuegbunam (four receptions, 13 yards) and Johnathon Johnson (three catches, 40 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

The Alabama Tide are coming off of a lopsided 65-31 win over Arkansas. The defense allowed the Razorbacks to rush for 172 yards on 31 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Rakeem Boyd had a good outing in the defeat for Arkansas, posting 102 rushing yards on 15 attempts. As a group, the Tide collectively completed 14-of-18 passes for 393 yards and four touchdowns. Tua Tagovailoa went 10-for-13 for 334 yards and four touchdowns while Jalen Hurts was four-of-five for 59 yards. Damien Harris (111 rushing yards on 15 attempts, two TDs) and Najee Harris (63 yards on seven carries) mounted the running game as Jerry Jeudy (four receptions, 135 yards, two TDs) and Jaylen Waddle (four catches, 49 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

Missouri has run the ball on 51.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Alabama has an overall rush percentage of 62.0 percent. The Tigers have produced 211.6 rush yards/game (including 229.0 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Tide are averaging 222.2 rush yards per game (188.3 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.

The Tigers offense has averaged 318.4 yards through the air overall (212.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Tide have produced a superb 345.3 pass yards per contest (371 in the SEC) and have 24 total pass scores.

Defensively, Missouri has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 107.4 yards and pass for 284.8 yards per game. The Alabama D has given up 197.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 134.3 yards per game on the ground. The Tide are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.52 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers have allowed an 8.46 ANY/A.

Offensively, Lock has amassed 1,266 passing yards this year. He’s completed 95-of-149 attempts with 11 passing scores and only three interceptions. Lock has an 8.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.14 over the past two games.

The Tigers will likely try to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. Damarea Crockett (286 rush yards, two rush TDs), Tyler Badie (184 rush yards, 45 receiving yards), and Larry Rountree III (350 rush yards, three rush TDs) have delivered in the Missouri offensive scheme.

Tua Tagovailoa has managed to complete 68-of-93 passes for 1,367 yards, 16 TDs and zero INTs for Alabama. His ANY/A sits at 17.62 for the season and 27.71 across his past two games.

The Tide will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Jerry Jeudy (500 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs), Jaylen Waddle (zero rush yards, 175 receiving yards) and Damien Harris (341 rush yards, three rush TDs) have gotten plenty of looks lately.

Missouri Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Alabama, ATS Winner: Missouri

Team Betting Trends

  • The Tigers offense has recorded six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Crimson Tide have accounted for 12 such plays.
  • The Missouri defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Alabama has given up two such plays.
  • The Missouri offense has created six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Alabama has created eight such runs.
  • The Tigers defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Crimson Tide have given up nine such runs.
  • The Alabama defense has recorded more than three times as many sacks as Missouri this season (19 to six).
  • Missouri, as a team, has averaged 5.35658914728682 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
  • Alabama has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.9 over its last two.