Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 5 Betting Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Minnesota Vikings (+3) are set to pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Lincoln Financial Field. This late afternoon matchup will get going at 4:25 p.m. ET and FOX will broadcast the action.

Week 5 Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings

In this Sunday NFC game, Philadelphia has been projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 3 points. The Vikings are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Eagles are -150. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 44.5 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it would likely result in a decent in-game betting opportunity.

The Vikings have gained 0.0 units so far and are 1-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-2.

The Eagles have lost 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-3 ATS and also have an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Vikings have gone 1-2-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Eagles are 2-2 SU.

The Vikings are looking to get back on track after a 38-31 defeat to the Rams last week where Kirk Cousins completed 36-of-50 passes for 422 yards and three touchdowns. Dalvin Cook (20 yards on 10 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the loss. Stefon Diggs (11 receptions, 123 yards) and Adam Thielen (eight catches, 135 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

In Week 4, Tennessee took care of this Philadelphia team by a score of 26-23. The Eagles defensive secondary allowed the Titans to air it out for 344 yards and two touchdowns. Corey Davis was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 161 yards on nine catches for Tennessee. For Philadelphia, Carson Wentz completed 33-of-50 passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns. Jay Ajayi (70 yards on 15 rush attempts) handled the ground game in the defeat as Zach Ertz (10 receptions, 112 yards) and Alshon Jeffery (eight catches, 105 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.

Minnesota has run the ball on 27.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Philadelphia has a rush percentage of 38.8 percent. The Vikings have produced 63.0 rush yards per game and have yet to record a touchdown via handoffs this year. The Eagles are totaling 118.3 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Eagles ought to own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has generated 4.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.4 to opponents. The Vikings have recorded 3.5 yards per carry while allowing 3.9 YPC to opponents.

The Vikes offensive scheme has averaged a stellar 346.8 yards in the air overall and has 10 passing score so far. The Eagles have produced 267.3 pass yards per contest and have four total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota has allowed 104.0 rush yards and 300.8 pass yards per game. The Philadelphia defense has allowed 290.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 63.8 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.38 to opposing QBs, while the Vikings have given up a 7.99 ANY/A.

Offensively, Cousins has already put up 1,091 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 68 percent of his 134 attempts with nine scores through the air and only one interception. Cousins has an 8.15 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 6.24 over the past two outings.

Look for Cousins to attack all areas of the Philadelphia secondary. Adam Thielen (140 receiving yards and two touchdowns), Stefon Diggs (294 yards, three TDs) and Kyle Rudolph (140 yards, one TD) have all been heavily involved recently, getting 31, 25 and 12 targets respectively over the past two outings.

For the home team, Carson Wentz has connected on 33-of-50 passes for 348 yards, two TDs and zero INTs. Wentz’s ANY/A sits at 6.57 for the year and 5.80 across his past two games.

We expect the Philadelphia offense to mix it up in this one. Zach Ertz, Wendell Smallwood and Alshon Jeffery have combined to account for 435 total yards and two touchdowns as a trio over the last two outings.

When these two franchises met last year, Philadelphia knocked off Minnesota soundly 38-7.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Vikings, ATS Winner: Vikings, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • Minnesota was favored by 7 points in its last game and the Over/Under going into it was 49. The over cashed and Minnesota did not cover in the 38-31 loss to the Rams.
  • As a team, Minnesota has averaged 3.31707317073171 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.0 over its last two.
  • Philadelphia has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its last two.
  • The Philadelphia offense has lost five fumbles this season while Minnesota has lost four.
  • Over its last three matchups, Minnesota is 0-2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Philadelphia was the underdog by 3 points in its previous outing and the O/U was set at 41. The over cashed and the spread pushed in that 26-23 loss to Tennessee.
  • Over its last three matchups, Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Each team has produced two pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Vikings have have made four pass plays of 30+ yards while the Eagles have created six such plays.
  • The Minnesota defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Philadelphia has given up three such plays.
  • The Minnesota offense has created zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Philadelphia has created two such runs.
  • The Vikings defense has allowed zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Eagles have given up two such runs.
  • Each team defense has tallied 11 sacks this year.