Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Minnesota Twins will head south to Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North will be televising this AL matchup.

Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Minnesota (+105) is hosting this one as the underdog to Tampa Bay (-115) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 7.5 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). You can also bet on the game’s runline with the odds coming in at Twins +1.5 runs (-200) and Rays +-1.5 runs (+170).

The Rays are just 5-13 SU and 9-9 ATS. They’ve lost 8.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.8 units against the spread (ATS). The Twins are 8-5 SU and have gone 10-3 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 3.5 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 7.2 units ATS.

Tampa Bay games have an 11-7 over/under record so far in 2018. Minnesota has an over/under record of 4-9.

Right-hander Lance Lynn is getting the start for Minnesota. Lynn is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 12 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Rays this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 2.57 ERA and eight strikeouts across seven innings).

The Rays are turning to righty Chris Archer (1-1, 7.84 ERA), who has 24 strikeouts and nine walks to his name as well as a 1.69 WHIP. Archer only made one start against the Twins in 2017 (1-0, 2.35 ERA and 11 strikeouts across seven and 2-third innings).

Minnesota’s pitchers have allowed 3.4 runs per game and its starters own a 2.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.04 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.16, along with a WHIP of 1.17 and a K-per-9 of 8.42.

Twins hitters have slashed .232/.310/.392 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game this season, including 3.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

First baseman Joe Mauer and second baseman Brian Dozier have led Minnesota’s offense. Mauer is slashing .364/.500/.477 with 16 hits, six RBIs and six runs scored, while Dozier (.281/.359/.544) has produced 16 hits, four homers, seven RBIs and 12 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Tampa Bay’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 4.87, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.6. The bullpen has a 4.72 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 8.2 K/9.

The Tampa Bay hitters are putting up 3.4 runs per outing, including 4.2 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .282/.344/.424 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Left fielder Mallex Smith and second baseman Daniel Robertson have paced the Rays’ offense so far. Smith is slashing .373/.418/.510 with 19 hits, three RBIs and six runs scored, while Robertson’s line sits at .250/.455/.406 with eight hits, three RBIs and nine runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .270/.329/.355, Smith seemed to enjoy hitting righty pitching at home in 2017, slashing .305/.393/.429 over 122 such plate appearances.

The Twins have gained 1.0 units and are 8-3 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to seven that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Rays have lost 7.0 units and are 3-7 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in six of those games, compared to four that’ve gone under.

Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Rays, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in five of Minnesota’s last seven games.
  • The Twins have won four of their last five games SU.
  • Tampa Bay has posted 22.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 23.6 over its last five.
  • The Twins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Rays have hit seven over their last 10.