Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Free Pick

Jonathan GarosBaseball, MLB

The Kansas City Royals will play host to their division rival Minnesota Twins at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium. The matchup will begin at 8:15 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox Sports Kansas City to catch the game.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Minnesota (-130) as the favorite over Kansas City (+120). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 and the under for +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at +115 for the Twins -1.5 runs and -135 for the Royals +1.5 runs.

The Twins are 67-79 SU and are 74-71 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 11.7 units for moneyline bettors and 1.3 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Royals, on the other hand, are 50-96 SU and 70-75 ATS. The team’s lost 27.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 14.1 units ATS. Kansas City has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Kansas City games have an over/under record of 61-73-11 in 2018. The Twins have an over/under record of 70-72-3.

Jose Berrios will get the start for the Twinkies. The right-handed Berrios is 11-11 with a 3.83 ERA and 176 strikeouts. He’s 2-1 with 19 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA against Kansas City this year (three starts).

The Royals are sending righty Jorge Lopez (2-4, 3.72 ERA) to the mound. Lopez has 37 punchouts and 22 walks to his name, as well as a 1.28 WHIP. Lopez is 1-0 with four strikeouts and a 1.13 ERA in one start against Minnesota this year.

Kansas City’s pitching staff has given up 5.2 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has a 5.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.11 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 7.4 K/9. In 65 divisional games, Royals starters have an ERA of 4.82 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.09.

Kansas City’s offense is putting up 3.8 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .219/.328/.388 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Second baseman Whit Merrifield and catcher Salvador Perez have led the Royals’ hitters this year. Merrifield is hitting .302/.367/.435 with 12 home runs, 54 RBIs, 78 runs and 36 steals, and Perez is hitting .235 with 25 homers, 70 RBIs and 46 runs.

For the visitors, Minnesota’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.59 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.19 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.63, along with a K/9 of 9.05.

The Twins offense has slashed .244/.315/.401 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game this season, including 4.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Minnesota’s hitters have been led by outfielder Eddie Rosario and first baseman Joe Mauer. Rosario is slashing .287/.323/.477 with 23 home runs, 76 RBIs and 85 runs scored, while Mauer is hitting .273/.344/.374 with six homers, 43 RBIs and 51 runs scored.

The Twins have lost 3.5 units and are 54-49 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 51 of those games, as opposed to 50 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Royals have lost 20.6 units and are 47-54 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 46 of those games, as opposed to 47 that’ve gone under.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes,

  • Minnesota has logged 14 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Kansas City has 15 XBH over its last five.
  • The Twins have hit six home runs in their last 10 games. The Royals have hit 11 over their last 10.
  • Minnesota fielders have committed four errors over their last five games, compared to zero errors for Kansas City over its last five.
  • The Royals have won three of their last four games SU.