Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Minnesota Twins are set to take on their divisional rival Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. The game gets underway 1:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North will broadcast the action.

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Minnesota (-115) as the favorite over Detroit (+105). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -105 or the under for -115. Runline odds stand at +130 for taking the Twins -1.5 runs and -150 for the Tigers +1.5.

The Tigers are 37-31 against the spread (ATS), despite being 32-37 straight up (SU). The teams gained 4.9 units for moneyline bettors and 1.4 units (ATS). The Twins are 29-35 SU and have gone 37-26 ATS. In total, the teams lost 7.5 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, but have gained 10.1 units ATS.

Detroit games have an over/under record of 29-37-2 so far in 2018. Minnesota has an over/under record of 29-32-2.

Right-hander Lance Lynn will get the nod for the visiting Twins. Lynn is 4-4 with a 5.08 ERA and 62 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with four strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Detroit this year.

The Tigers are putting the ball in the hands of righty Michael Fulmer (2-5, 4.40 ERA), who’s got 62 strikeouts and 27 walks to his name, as well as a 1.30 WHIP. Fulmer is 1-0 with five strikeouts and a 1.59 ERA in one start against Minnesota this year.

Minnesota’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 8.91 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.16, along with a WHIP of 1.31.

The Twins offense has slashed .239/.315/.404 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Minnesota’s offensive production has been led by left fielder Eddie Rosario and shortstop Eduardo Escobar, who collectively have blasted 26 home runs. Rosario is slashing .311/.349/.551 with 14 home runs, 43 RBIs and 43 runs scored, while Escobar has a .291 average with 12 homers, 41 RBIs and 32 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Detroit’s pitchers have given up 4.6 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 4.22 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.44 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. In 31 games against divisional foes, Tigers starters have an ERA of 3.75 and the bullpens ERA is 4.29.

The Detroit offense is putting up 4.2 runs per contest, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .227/.282/.337 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Tigers hitters have been led by right fielder Nicholas Castellanos and shortstop Jose Iglesias. Castellanos is hitting .310/.351/.480 with six home runs, 34 RBIs and 32 runs scored, and Iglesias has put up a line of .261/.308/.396 with 60 hits, 25 RBIs, 24 runs and 10 stolen bases.

The Twins have lost 3.9 units and are 27-19 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 21 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Tigers have lost 2.3 units and are 24-25 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 29 that went under the total.

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Tigers, ATS Winner – Tigers, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in only two of Detroit’s last seven games.
  • Detroit has posted 18.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 19.6 over its last five.
  • The Twins have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Tigers have hit four over their last 10.